And with more interest rate cuts likely coming and higher tariffs still on the table, I expect inflation to accelerate.

Fortunately, there’s an asset class that has absolutely crushed inflation every decade for nearly a century. And I bet you’ll be surprised when you find out what it is.

It is not gold.

Gold has kept up with inflation over the very long term, but that’s about it. An ounce of gold essentially buys the same amount of goods and services today as it did a millennium or two ago.

The big inflation beater is small cap stocks.

You can see from the chart above that small caps strongly outpaced inflation in every decade. The smallest margin was 4.7% in the 1980s.

On average, small caps returned 13% annually, while inflation averaged 3.2% – meaning small caps increased an investor’s buying power by an astounding 10% per year.

That doesn’t just mean you could have had 10% more money each year. It means you could have bought 10% more goods and services each year – no matter how high prices rose during that year.

To make it clear just how profound this is, let me give you an example. Let’s say you’re a golfer and the average round of golf costs you $100. You have a budget of $1,000 per year for golf (not including equipment). That means you can play 10 times per year.

Now imagine that, due to inflation, a round of golf will cost you $105 next year. If your budget doesn’t increase, you’re down to playing nine times per year. And in a few years, if inflation remains constant, that will decline to eight times.

But now suppose that you added the average yearly return (13%) that small caps have delivered to your golf budget, increasing it from $1,000 to $1,130. Not only would you be able to afford the annual bump in greens fees, but you’d also be able to increase the number of times you can hit the links to 11 per year. You’d be able to play 12 times the following year… and so on.

Small caps get a bad rap. Many investors think they’re super risky. And certain ones are. There are plenty of garbage companies out there.

But as an asset class, small caps have a fantastic track record that goes back decades. And surprisingly, they help investors increase their buying power even during periods of high inflation.

Going forward, it will be important to have small caps in your portfolio. With large caps trading at historically high valuations (and with more rate cuts by the Fed on the horizon), they are likely to be the top performers in the near term.

Many people think of small caps as speculative investments. But they have proven over nearly 100 years to play a vital role in allowing investors to beat inflation and increase their buying power.

The post The Big Inflation Beater appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

A couple of weeks ago, I shared an article by Monument Traders Alliance’s Bryan Bottarelli about how September’s Fed meeting could be the biggest in decades.

Now that the meeting has passed, I’ve invited Bryan back to break down how he’s preparing for any potential volatility over the next few months.

– James Ogletree, Senior Managing Editor

CNBC polled 29 ‘professional economists’ about Fed Day.

I ignored them all and positioned for the one thing they didn’t consider: markets doing the opposite of expectations.

While Wall Street’s brightest minds were debating quarter vs half-point cuts…

I was laughing at a different number entirely.

94.7%.

That’s the probability that CME Fed Watch showed for a quarter-point cut.

When I see consensus that strong, my contrarian radar starts screaming.

Because here’s what those 29 experts missed…

Fed Day isn’t about being right on direction.

It’s about being positioned for chaos.

The Consensus Was Suffocating

CNBC’s survey revealed those professionals expected political pressure on Fed independence, inflation concerns, higher unemployment, and slower growth.

All very neat predictions about policy implications.

Meanwhile, I was watching something else entirely: the political warfare brewing between this administration and Jerome Powell.

Three months of name-calling. Court battles over Fed governors. Lisa Cook getting blocked from being fired right before the meeting.

You think that doesn’t create unusual market dynamics?

My Contrarian Setup

That’s why I positioned with a strangle – buying both calls and puts on SPY with strikes around 661 call and 660 put. Total cost: just under $6.

My target? A 1% move in either direction. The position would profit as long as the market moved more than my premium cost.

While the experts debated policy, I was focused on how the market would react to whatever Powell said.

The Real Fed Day Strategy

Position the day before. I sent out the trade at 2:30 Central, 30 minutes before close. Get positioned when you can think clearly, not when Powell’s talking.

Target 1% moves. Anything over 1% up or down on SPY, and the strangle position is profitable. It’s not about hitting home runs – it’s about consistent profitability on volatility.

Use zero-day options strategically. These become precision tools for capturing short-term volatility around known catalysts.

What The Experts Always Miss

Those 29 economists were trying to predict the future. I was positioned to profit from uncertainty.

The difference? When markets do weird things around Fed announcements – which happens more often than anyone wants to admit – I’m positioned to profit. They’re left scrambling to explain why their predictions didn’t match market reality.

YOUR ACTION PLAN

The Fed delivered exactly what 94.7% of the market expected.

But here’s what those 29 economists missed…

This rate cut just set up the next 90 days for PEAK volatility.

And volatility is where the real money gets made.

The zero-day strangle I showed you? That’s just the beginning.

Because when markets get chaotic (and they’re about to), having a systematic approach to profit from that chaos becomes everything.

The Fed Shockwave is Coming

The political warfare between Powell and this administration isn’t over.

The following 90 days could deliver the most volatile three months we’ve seen in years.

Most traders will panic when markets swing wild.

Smart traders will position themselves to profit from those swings.

The post Did the Fed Just Spark 90 Days of Chaos? appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

Will it reduce rates? If so, by how much? How cautious will Fed Chair Jerome Powell be when he addresses the media? How will the markets react?

The answers to all of these crucial questions are less than 24 hours away.

To help cut through the noise, I’ve asked our top two experts here in Wealthy Retirement – Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld and Director of Trading Anthony Summers – two simple questions: What should the Fed do… and what will it do?

What should the Fed do?

Marc: I’ve mentioned several times in the past that the Fed has two mandates. The first is to keep inflation in check. The second is to maintain full employment.

While President Trump has railed against Powell to lower interest rates, Powell has defied him, saying he wouldn’t do so until the data showed that rate cuts are warranted.

They now are.

Ask anyone whether inflation is under control, and they’ll tell you no. The consumer price index’s 0.4% rise in August and 2.9% increase year over year confirm that.

Jobs are deteriorating too. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said last Tuesday that there were 911,000 fewer nonfarm payroll jobs than previously reported. For the week ending September 6, there were 263,000 new unemployment claims, the most in four years.

A 25-basis-point rate cut to a range of 4% to 4.25% seems appropriate at this point.

Anthony: The Fed should cut by a quarter-point, or 25 basis points.

On the surface, the job market is softening – though there’s data that suggests the slowdown is somewhat concentrated in certain sectors – and overall economic growth looks shaky. But while inflation isn’t raging anymore, it’s not low either.

In this mix, tight policy could be doing more harm than good. A small cut supports hiring and cash flow for Main Street. It also offsets tariff drag that can slow demand.

All the Fed really needs to do right now is help the job market while keeping a close eye on prices. If inflation flares, pause. If hiring continues to weaken, cut once more.

Keep the mission simple, yet steady. That approach reduces recession risk without inviting a price spiral. It also keeps credit markets open for households and small firms.

What will the Fed do?

Marc: I suspect the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points. That’s not going to suddenly spark hiring, but it does put America on notice that rates are likely going to continue coming down. It’s a warning shot across the bow.

A 50-basis-point cut at this point would feel alarmist. If inflation was abnormally low, 50 basis points might make sense, but with the prices of everything from rent to food to TV subscriptions going higher (regardless of what the government data shows), not to mention the effect of tariffs, lowering rates too quickly could result in rip-roaring inflation.

The Fed has a balancing act to conduct. It needs to lower rates enough to fuel jobs, but not so much that it fans the inflation flames. It’s not an easy thing to manage.

Anthony: I think the Fed will likely do what it should do.

The most probable move is a 25-basis-point cut, but officials will stress that future actions will be determined “meeting by meeting.” They will nod to sticky inflation but frame it as manageable, pointing to softer hiring and cooler growth as the bigger risks today.

That opens the door to another cut if jobs data stays weak. They will not pre-commit to back-to-back moves – nor should they – but they will not rule it out either.

Tariff concerns will get a mention as a headwind. The Fed will avoid big promises about next year’s fiscal plans; that is outside its lane. So I’d expect a cautious tone and a split vote or two.

Markets will hear “one cut now, maybe more to come.” If the next jobs report disappoints, odds are the Fed will follow up with a cut. If inflation pops higher, the Fed will likely pause.

Marc and Anthony both expect a quarter-point cut tomorrow, but not everyone sees it the same way.

A columnist in the Financial Times argued last week that a rate cut would be an “alarmist reflex” and that “there is an equally strong case for a rate increase.”

On the other hand, British bank Standard Chartered supports a sizable reduction, writing that the slowing job market “has paved the way for a ‘catch-up’ 50-basis-point rate cut.”

However, the majority of economists agree with Marc and Anthony that a 25-basis-point reduction is both the most prudent and the most likely outcome.

Will they be right? We’ll know in less than 24 hours.

What do you think the Fed should do? More importantly, what will it do? Are you excited? Are you concerned? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

The post What the Fed Should (and Will) Do Next appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

Right now, markets are pricing in more than a 90% chance that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will announce the first interest rate cut of 2025 this coming Wednesday.

This could trigger shockwaves across the market, and our colleagues at Monument Traders Alliance will be getting investors prepared for what they believe could be a “dream scenario” of buy opportunities.

Click here to learn about their upcoming FREE “Trump vs. Powell FOMC Watch Party” event.

– James Ogletree, Senior Managing Editor

We’re less than 2 weeks away from what I believe is the biggest FOMC event in decades.

I’ve been talking about it for the last few weeks, and for good reason.

The amount at stake is incredible, and I know that sounds like a bold statement.

But in all my years of trading, I’ve never seen a scenario quite like this.

The tensions between President Donald Trump and Fed Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell are about to boil over… and I believe an aftershock could be in play.

Here are 3 different scenarios I could see playing out…

FOMC Scenario 1: Powell Kisses Trump’s Ring and Markets Move Up

In this scenario, Powell does exactly what Trump has been wanting him to do.

Powell delivers the news that the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates by 25 bps, bringing the target range to 4-4.25%.

But Powell doesn’t stop there… he takes it a step further.

He goes as far as to say that this is the start of a well-calibrated easing cycle. Meaning multiple rate cuts are on the horizon.

Trump is giddy with enthusiasm. He takes to Truth Social and announces “this is the start of America’s next big economic boom.”

The market reacts to the upside.

Sectors like tech, real estate, consumer, and utilities spike.

Lower borrowing costs also light up growth expectations.

Overall, it sends a signal that yes, this is the start of an easing cycle and not a recession panic.

FOMC Scenario 2: Powell Tells Trump to “Shove it” and Markets Sell Off

Instead of playing nice like the first scenario, Powell hits Trump with a haymaker of his own.

He knows Trump is going to fire him anyway. So why not go out like a gangster and tell Trump “no rate cuts for you” before sailing off into the sunset?

In this case, Powell says he’s not cutting rates, citing that inflation isn’t under control.

Investors feel blindsided. All that talk of an almost certain rate cut and a soft landing is dashed.

Because of this unexpected move, equities react to the downside.

Tech and real estate stocks get hammered fast. Traders dump growth stocks, and long-term yields spike higher as recession fears kick in.

Powell walks out of the burning building without bothering to look at the destruction.

FOMC Scenario 3: Powell Walks the Tightrope and Markets Fluctuate

In this last scenario, Powell doesn’t cave to Trump or get overly hawkish. Instead, he meets Trump halfway.

He announces rate cuts of 25 bps, agreeing that the recent low jobs data is a viable reason for the decision. But he stops short of saying “this is the start of an easing cycle with multiple rate cuts.”

Powell’s tone will be key here.

How cautious does he sound? Is he being too ambiguous?

If he is, stocks might cheer the move in the short run. But growth-heavy sectors like tech and real estate could see wild swings over the long term amid the uncertainty.

Why It Matters for You

Look, while it’s fun to try and predict what will happen during the FOMC meeting, the truth is your money is too valuable to get caught in the wash of all this political drama.

Forget about whose side you’re on for a second…

The stock market HATES uncertainty, and when there’s an all-out verbal civil war happening with President Trump and the active Fed Chair – the probability of a severe aftershock is in play.

So far, we haven’t seen much of a market reaction to this upcoming event. But that could change instantly depending on what happens Sept. 17.

But the beauty is that if I’m wrong and there’s no major reaction, I’ll have research that aims to make you money no matter what.

I’ll be going over more details below on how you can get prepared.

YOUR ACTION PLAN

No matter what happens on Sept. 17, we’ll be ready to help you navigate the aftershock. Next Wednesday, my partner Karim Rahemtulla and I are going live at 1:15 p.m. for our “Trump vs. Powell FOMC Watch Party.”

We’ll talk about the effects the FOMC announcement will have on your money in the weeks and months to come. We’ll also show you how this announcement could set up a “dream scenario” for traders like you.

The event is completely free.

Click here to sign up today.

The post The Biggest Fed Meeting in Decades appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

The market jumped as a result.

Investors should tread carefully – not because valuations are at historically high levels (though that is true), but because inflation is likely to burn hot if the Fed lowers rates.

Powell himself said the Fed has to manage both employment, which continues to stagnate, and inflation, which continues to rise. A rate cut only adds gasoline to the inflation fire.

In January, in the Forecast Issue of my newsletter, The Oxford Income Letter, I predicted that inflation would spike in 2025. A Fed rate cut would likely make that forecast a slam dunk.

There are not many investments that keep up with inflation – particularly ones that generate income.

Fixed income doesn’t do the trick. If you’re earning $1,000 a year in fixed income and prices rise 5%, something that used to cost $1,000 last year now costs $1,050. But your $1,000 in fixed income interest doesn’t budge, so you have a $50 hole to make up.

One of the only ways to combat inflation is with dividend growth stocks.

These companies pay dividends (usually quarterly) and raise their dividends each year. If you have a stock whose dividend is hiked by a meaningful amount, you could actually increase your buying power, even in periods of rising inflation.

For example, Civista Bancshares (Nasdaq: CIVB), a microcap bank based in Ohio, has been around since 1884. Today, the stock yields 3.2%, but the company has raised its dividend every year since 2012 at a compound annual growth rate of over 13%. The most recent dividend increase was lower at 6.3%, but that is still above the current inflation rate, so it still boosted shareholders’ buying power.

Chevron (NYSE: CVX) is another solid dividend growth stock. The oil and gas giant has a current yield of 4.3% and has raised its dividend every year for 36 years.

The most recent increase was 5%, which as of now is higher than inflation.

Over the past 50 years, companies that raised or initiated a dividend outperformed the equal-weighted S&P 500 by nearly 3.5 times. They beat non-dividend payers by more than 1,700%.

Furthermore, when the spit hits the fan, dividend growers are safer than the overall market. The S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index, which tracks companies in the S&P 500 that have raised their dividends every year for at least 25 years, is 10% less volatile than the broad market.

In other words, during a correction, the Aristocrats should decline less than other stocks.

Rates are coming down, and inflation is going higher. Investors should look toward dividend growth stocks to keep up with inflation – or else risk seeing their purchasing power be reduced.

The post Rate Cuts Are Coming… and So Is Inflation appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

It seems that may be the case…

Considering large caps, as measured by the S&P 500, have done the heavy lifting of the current stock market rally.

And the Magnificent Seven – a group of seven megacap technology growth stocks associated with artificial intelligence – have led the way. Because the S&P 500 is a weighted index, companies with the largest market caps have a bigger impact on it. And all of the Magnificent Seven stocks are among the 11 largest firms in the world.

But the Magnificent Seven’s recent run – as a group, they’re up 230% since the October 2022 beginning of the current bull market – has also made them very expensive.

The forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of the Magnificent Seven now stands at 28.6. That’s far higher than the S&P 500’s P/E (22.2) and nearly double that of the S&P SmallCap 600 Index (just 15.6).

And now, several challenges that have held small cap companies back are receding. So there are suddenly new opportunities in the small cap space.

Rate Cuts Coming

Small companies have suffered from higher borrowing costs since the Federal Reserve started hiking rates in early 2022 in response to spiking inflation.

These companies tend to have less in the way of profits, so they rely more heavily on credit to fund their operations. And credit has been expensive the last few years.

But relief is likely on the way. It looks increasingly likely that the Fed will begin reducing rates later this year.

Futures traders are now pricing in at least two quarter-point rate cuts by the end of the year, and possibly three.

And historically, small caps have benefited the most during interest rate easing cycles.

Since 1954, small cap stocks gained on average 14.2% after the first Fed cut, while large caps gained 9.4%. And a year after the first cut, small caps gained nearly 27% while large caps rose about 16%. An 11-percentage-point outperformance is pretty significant for any asset class.

Lower Taxes

The recently-passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act extends the corporate tax cuts enacted during President Donald Trump’s first term.

That’s more good news for smaller businesses, which tend to pay higher tax rates than their larger brethren due to their revenue composition. They rely more heavily on domestic revenues, which are more directly affected by U.S. corporate tax rates.

Tariffs

Finally, tariffs disadvantage bigger firms, because those businesses get more of their revenue from exports than small firms, which tend to be more domestically focused.

And while the Trump administration is negotiating many of the tariffs down, they will still be higher going forward. This gives small firms a leg up on large caps.

Put higher tariffs, lower taxes, and more affordable borrowing costs together, and the future is looking bright for small businesses and their share prices.

And in fact, we’re already seeing that in our portfolios at The Oxford Club.

The truth is the surge in small cap stocks is already here – if you know where to look.

The post 3 Reasons Small Caps Could Steal the Show appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

Shah was one of the only people who foresaw Trump’s impact on the market back in 2016… so when he talks, I listen.

To read more of Shah’s recent content, click here.

– James Ogletree, Managing Editor

When it comes to trading and investing, elections don’t just elect leaders…

They ignite or douse market trends.

That’s why Wall Street wasn’t just watching the presidential election… It was bracing for what could be another seismic shift.

The last time Trump rode to victory in 2016, markets trembled, then soared. That election night saw Dow futures plunge 800 points as traders caught their breath, only to witness a reversal that kicked off a remarkable bull run. The Dow soared 56% through 2019.

Now, with Trump set to begin his second term, smart money is positioning for what could be another wild ride.

The Deregulation Spark

Trump’s first term lit a fire under the financial sector by slashing through post-2008 red tape, particularly the constraints of Dodd-Frank.

Wall Street giants like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup found themselves unchained from strict capital requirements. That unleashed a wave of lending and trading that sent their stocks skyward.

The proof was in the profits – banks posted record earnings as compliance costs dropped and lending flexibility soared.

Trump’s victory could reignite this deregulatory flame and lead to harder lobbying against the Basel IV requirements that are looming over banks.

Trump’s pro-market stance could delay or weaken the enforcement of these restrictions, further boosting financial stocks.

With more freedom to deploy capital, banks could play a larger role in propelling the market forward. That money would energize sectors across the economy and give investors another opportunity to benefit from the financial sector’s growth.

Crypto’s Wild Ride

The crypto market’s explosive journey during Trump’s first term – including Bitcoin’s rise from $700 to a staggering $30,000 – could be just a preview of what’s ahead.

While Trump once eyed crypto with skepticism, insiders hint at a dramatic shift in stance. His second term could finally deliver what institutional investors crave: clear rules of the game.

Policies that prioritize innovation and economic growth could mean a friendlier regulatory environment for both coins and blockchain technology, fostering innovation while allowing assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and new digital tokens to flourish.

With regulatory clarity, the floodgates could open. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the entire digital asset space would catch fire. This isn’t just about price moves – it’s about legitimizing an entire asset class that’s been waiting in the wings.

The real opportunity might lie in the infrastructure plays: exchanges, custody providers, and blockchain technology firms that would benefit from institutional money flooding in.

America’s Industrial Revival

Trump’s previous deregulation blitz unleashed American energy producers, sending production through the roof and transforming the U.S. into an energy powerhouse.

The policies he enacts during his second term could supercharge this sector again, while his “America First” battle cry could ignite a boom across…

• Oil and gas exploration, with permits fast-tracked and production barriers lowered
• Massive infrastructure projects, from highways to power grids
• Construction and materials firms poised for government contracts
• American manufacturing muscle, especially in strategic industries
• Transport and logistics innovation, including port expansions and rail upgrades.

This isn’t just about building bridges. It’s about rebuilding American industrial might, creating a goldmine of opportunities from raw materials to cutting-edge construction tech.

Watch for companies with strong government contracts and domestic supply chains to lead the charge.

Playing the Fed and Inflation’s Wild Card

Trump’s pro-growth agenda and push for easy money helped fuel his first term’s market rally.

His second term could influence the Fed’s stance on interest rates and inflation control. If he pursues a similar economic agenda, focusing on growth through lower taxes and deregulation, the Fed might be encouraged to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. Lower interest rates could benefit sectors from tech to housing and keep consumers spending.

But savvy investors need to watch for inflation’s warning signs. When growth policies collide with deregulation and heavy spending, precious metals and commodities often become the smart money’s hedge of choice.

Gold, silver, and industrial metals could shine bright in this scenario, while real estate typically thrives in inflationary times.

Where to Place Your Bets

Trump’s return to the White House could create a perfect storm for several sectors, just as his 2016 victory did. These five sectors stand ready to explode:

• Financials: Banks unleashed from regulatory chains could see their stocks soar. Looser capital requirements and regulatory ease would allow for more lending, trading, and investment freedom.
• Crypto: Clear rules could trigger an institutional feeding frenzy, benefiting both coins and crypto infrastructure plays.
• Energy: American oil and gas producers could roar back to life thanks to deregulation, especially those with strong domestic operations.
• Infrastructure: “America First” means a building boom… with opportunities across the entire construction and materials supply chain.
• Commodities: Growth and spending could ignite raw materials, while inflation fears could drive precious metals higher.

Trump’s victory has the potential to unleash waves of opportunity across multiple sectors… but not without volatility.

As the markets adjust, investors with a sharp eye on Trump’s policy track record and the evolving financial landscape will be positioned to capitalize on the next wave.

Wall Street isn’t just watching… it’s waiting. And a Trump victory could be the spark that ignites another historic bull run.

The post 5 Sectors Set to Soar During Trump’s Second Term appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

Today, I’m sharing Director of Trading Anthony Summers’ article from the December issue of The Oxford Income Letter about where the best value will likely be found in 2025.

I want to hear your thoughts as well – do you have your eye on any particular stocks or sectors this year? Let me know in the comments below.

– James Ogletree, Managing Editor

Buffett is at it again…

The Oracle of Omaha has accumulated his largest cash hoard ever, an astounding $325 billion in cash.

What does he know that most investors don’t?

Unlike many of the fearmongers in the media, I don’t take this as a sign that Buffett is preparing for an imminent crash.

He simply knows two inconvenient truths:

1. The ample rewards of stock investing must be balanced against the risks.
2. The risk-reward balance is looking less and less attractive.

You see, there’s this thing called the “equity risk premium.” It’s basically the extra return you get for investing in stocks instead of safer investments like Treasury bonds.

When you invest in stocks, you expect to earn more than you would from government bonds because you’re taking on more risk. But today, that extra return is getting squeezed to the smallest levels since the early 2000s.

This is a sign that the stock market is becoming more and more overpriced – particularly large cap stocks, whose valuations have gotten stretched to concerning levels.

The S&P 500 is currently trading at 25 times forward earnings. That’s so far above the historical average that valuations would need to drop by about 3% annually for the next decade just to get back to normal.

Here’s the good news, though: There’s still value to be found for those who are willing to do a little digging.

Small cap stocks, especially those with strong value characteristics, are trading at some of their best valuations relative to large caps in 25 years. While everyone’s been chasing the same handful of megacap tech names, these smaller companies have been steadily building value.

History also shows us that interest rate cuts often lead to significant outperformance for small caps.

Dating back to 1957, small caps have returned an average of about 11% in the first three months of rate-cutting cycles, 19% in the first six months, and nearly 29% in the first year.

The gains after periods of underperformance are even more striking.

When small cap stocks have posted meager returns over a three-year period (as they did from 2021 to now), the bounce back has been remarkable.

According to market data going back to 1982, following these disappointing periods, small caps have gone up over the next three years 99% of the time.

Small caps are also showing stronger projected earnings growth than their large cap counterparts for both this year and next. Combine that with their current valuation discount and the historical data, and you’ve got a compelling opportunity.

But here’s the catch: You can’t just buy any small cap stock.

The key is focusing on quality companies with strong balance sheets, solid cash flows, and durable competitive advantages – in other words, true value stocks. These are where the risk-reward balance makes the most sense right now.

It Pays to Think Small

All the big money managers seem to agree that the broader market looks expensive. BlackRock, Vanguard, Goldman Sachs, and others are all predicting below-average returns for U.S. stocks in the coming years.

Factoring in dividends, buybacks, earnings growth, and valuations, the current consensus is that the S&P 500 will deliver only about 4% annually over the next decade. That’s barely better than what risk-free Treasury bills are offering.

In a market where risk premiums are shrinking and the Oracle of Omaha himself is stockpiling cash, seeking genuine value isn’t just smart – it’s essential. And right now, small cap value stocks might be one of the few places left to find it.

After all, when giants like Buffett are raising cash and valuations are stretched, it pays to look where others aren’t. While everyone else is still scrambling to buy yesterday’s winners, the smart money is quietly positioning itself in small cap value stocks.

The post Where the Value Will Be Found in 2025 appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

On the final day of 2024, I’ve got a special treat for you…

A year-end recap episode of State of the Market!

From record-setting highs to scary sell-offs…

And from faulty airplane doors to finnicky Fed members…

The past year was full of twists and turns.

And somehow, Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld managed to run through it all in under 6 minutes.

Marc also shared a sneak preview of some of his top predictions for 2025, and – if you can believe it – he even said something nice about Bitcoin!

There was no shortage of curveballs in 2024, and there are sure to be plenty more in 2025. But rest assured that Wealthy Retirement will be there at every turn, helping you to make sense of it all, protect your hard-earned cash, and pursue the retirement of your dreams.

To watch the 2024 recap episode of State of the Market, simply click the image above.

Thanks for reading, and happy new year!

The post (Almost) Everything That Happened in the Markets in 2024 appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

Below, he shares three reasons he believes gold can keep rising despite recently hitting all-time highs.

– James Ogletree, Managing Editor

Gold is the gift that keeps on giving in 2024.

Over the past few months, the metal has been trading at all-time highs.

When you look at our current fiscal situation, this shouldn’t come as a surprise (more on that in a moment).

As you’ll see in the chart below, gold reached a peak of more than $2,700 per ounce in October as people piled in at higher levels ahead of the election.

Here are three reasons the gold bull run is still going.

1. Our fiscal situation is out of control.

Our fiscal situation is pretty unbearable at the moment. Sure, the S&P 500 is consistently hitting all-time highs. People are out spending money. I went to Las Vegas a few weeks ago, and I noticed the airlines were packed on my way over there.

But the lack of visual evidence of a recession is only a short-term thing.

Over the last 30 years, our debt problem has steadily gotten worse and worse.

It doesn’t matter which political party is in office – the debt has been rising. There’s sure to be a ton more spending in 2025, so it doesn’t look like this fiscal problem is going away anytime soon.

2. Interest rates aren’t budging (despite the Fed’s efforts).

In September, the Federal Reserve made its first cut to the federal funds rate in over four years.

The intent was to lower interest rates, but that hasn’t happened.

In fact, the latest data from Freddie Mac shows the average 30-year mortgage rate has actually increased to 6.7% in the three months since the move.

This is due to the long-term rates showing that our fiscal house is not in order, meaning the government has to raise more and more money. That creates an imbalance.

You might think that a higher interest rate should equate to lower gold prices. That’s true in a conventional sense.

But these aren’t conventional times.

The truth is that if our country keeps issuing more debt and spending like crazy on the government side, interest rates can’t come down.

The only way out of the current mess is to devalue the U.S. dollar and the debt – both of which are good for gold.

3. The conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.

The situation in the Middle East and Ukraine also isn’t helping. We’re roughly one year removed from when tensions started to heighten in the Middle East, and it’s been almost three years since Russia launched its first military operation in Ukraine.

The cost of war to Israel’s economy is estimated to be around 12% of its GDP.

As for Russia/Ukraine, the U.S. doesn’t trade with them as much, but the war has affected U.S. businesses and caused gas prices to increase, which has contributed to inflation.

There’s also ever-lingering concern that Iran could get involved and spark a broader war in the Middle East.

This fear has already spilled bullish sentiment over to gold’s little brother – silver. For the past few months, silver has been trading at over $30 an ounce, a level it hadn’t reached since back in 2012.

A Golden Ticket

For these three key reasons, I believe gold still has plenty of room to run going forward.

What’s brewing here might just lead to the most significant gold rally of the century.

The post Bullish on Bullion: 3 Reasons Gold Could Keep Rising appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.