bear market Archives - Wealthy Retirement https://wealthyretirement.com/tag/bear-market/ Retire Rich... Retire Early. Fri, 07 Nov 2025 19:48:35 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8.3 Can You Handle Getting Punched in the Mouth? https://wealthyretirement.com/financial-literacy/can-you-handle-getting-punched-in-the-mouth/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/financial-literacy/can-you-handle-getting-punched-in-the-mouth/#comments Sat, 08 Nov 2025 16:30:14 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=34427 Life is great when markets are moving higher... but make sure you have a plan for when they aren’t.

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“If the market is cut in half three years from now, could you take it on the chin?”

That’s the question I asked my cousin Dave a few years ago when he requested investment advice. He wanted to know about different asset allocation strategies that were all heavily weighted toward stocks.

Dave is investing for years down the road, but he’s a worrier. I can talk all day long about how markets go up over the long term… or how you would have made money 93% of the time over rolling 10-year periods since 1937… or how the only time you wouldn’t have made money over 10 years was if you sold during the depths of the Great Depression or Great Recession.

But none of that matters when your portfolio is down 30% because you’re in the middle of a bear market a few years after you’ve invested.

(Note: I’m not calling for a bear market in the near future. I don’t have a crystal ball. I’m simply pointing out that bear markets happen and that one probably will occur at some point.)

So I talked to Dave about investing in Perpetual Dividend Raisers (stocks that raise their dividends every year), index funds, and actively managed mutual funds. I discussed the pros and cons of each, including managing the money himself versus turning it over to an advisor.

I encouraged Dave and his wife to have an honest conversation about what they would do if the market headed south. Otherwise, the fact that the S&P 500 has a 10-year average total return of 140% over the past 40 years will be meaningless, as they may not be able to handle the volatility.

If they are invested in the market without the proper risk tolerance and the market slides, they will no doubt sell into weakness, probably near the bottom like so many other investors.

When you hear about people who got their clocks cleaned in 2008, it’s usually because they panicked and sold. I’m not judging. The panic was understandable. We narrowly escaped financial Armageddon. (That’s not hyperbolic. The entire financial system was on the verge of collapse.)

But investors who held on were made whole fairly quickly. Even if you bought at the very top in 2007, your portfolio was back to where it started by early 2013.

Chart: S&P 500 Index (SPX)

It’s easy to be rational when stocks are moving higher (as they are today) and say, “I’m in it for the long term.” But like Mike Tyson accurately stated, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”

If you were in the market in 2008, think back to those dark days and consider whether you could handle a repeat of that experience. If you were not invested then, imagine what it would be like if your portfolio were cut in half. Would you have time to make it up? Would you be able to sleep at night? Would you be able to take it on the chin?

If the answer to any of those questions is no, get into safer assets like bonds, CDs, and money market accounts today.

If a downturn wouldn’t have you up against the ropes, stay invested, confident in the knowledge that markets go up over the long term.

Good investing,

Marc

P.S. What’s the best financial advice you’ve ever received – or advice that you often give to your kids, grandkids, or friends? Drop it in the comments below.

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The Problem With “Buy Low, Sell High” https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/the-problem-with-buy-low-sell-high/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/the-problem-with-buy-low-sell-high/#comments Tue, 07 Oct 2025 20:30:00 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=34326 Even if you’re committed to buying low and selling high, you probably won’t.

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With markets near all-time highs, I’ve had numerous conversations with friends telling me they’re going to hold off on investing until the market comes back down. “I’ll wait until things turn around,” they often say.

However, when the market falls, very few brave investors will put money to work.

Additionally, the odds of getting a better price than what you’d receive currently – regardless of when you’re reading this – are actually quite low. In fact, going back to 1928, if you wait for a bear market (a drop of 20% or more), you only have a 1-in-5 chance of obtaining a better entry point than the current price – no matter where that price level is.

Chart: Why Market Timing Does Not Work

This is an amazing statistic, because most people naturally think a bear market will provide a better opportunity.

Sometimes it does. The brief bear market during the early days of the pandemic provided a decent time to buy. At the very bottom in March 2020, prices were at their lowest point since December 2016 – nearly eight years after the bull market had started.

But how many people were buying stocks as the market was plummeting and the economy was shut down? Almost no one had the guts to buy at that time.

The most recent bear market ended in October 2022. At the low, you could have gotten a better price in the S&P than at any time after December 2020.

However, even if you possessed the nonexistent skill of market timing and waited to buy at the 2022 bear market low, that was still higher than the peak before the COVID crash and was roughly three times higher than where the S&P was in 2010.

Furthermore, even investors with the best intentions of buying low and selling high have a very hard time buying when stocks are falling. It’s too emotionally difficult. Sure, some folks are buy-the-dippers, but I’m not talking about a dip. I’m talking about a real correction or bear market. That’s a scary time to buy, and most people won’t do it until they believe things have stabilized.

At that point, the market is usually in raging bull mode.

Again, think back to the pandemic or the global financial crisis. Do you know anyone who was buying stocks in 2009? At that time, the economy was still a disaster. We were nowhere close to a recovery. Yet stocks bottomed and started their move higher. I know people who still have the emotional scars from the crisis and the terrible bear market that followed. As a result, they’re still scared to invest in stocks and have missed one of the great bull markets of all time.

Waiting for a better time to buy that may never come – or being scared to answer the door when opportunity knocks – could mean tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars of missed gains over time.

Invest at regular intervals regardless of what’s happening in the market – whether it’s a raging bull, growling bear, or anything in between. It may feel uncomfortable, but your future self will thank you for having discipline and not letting emotion get in the way of the most important element of investing success: the amount of time you are invested.

Remember, there’s an 80% chance you won’t get a better price in the future than what you see today.

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The Power of Contrarian Investing https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/the-power-of-contrarian-investing/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/the-power-of-contrarian-investing/#comments Tue, 08 Jul 2025 20:30:59 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=33986 When sentiment gets extreme, it’s usually wise to go the other way.

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In 2015, research firm DALBAR published a now-famous study that showed that over the prior 30 years, while the S&P 500 earned an average of 11% per year, the average investor only achieved a paltry 2.5% return.

A one-time $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 would have been worth $232,644 after 30 years versus just $20,792 for the average investor. That’s a hell of a difference.

Chart: The Average Investor Fails to Beat the S&P 500

Why is the spread so wide?

Investors get emotional. They get scared when markets fall and greedy at market peaks. Investors consistently make the wrong decisions about their portfolios when emotions take over.

I became aware of this phenomenon early in my investor education. I was fortunate to read the book Contrarian Investment Strategies by David Dreman. Contrarian investing is investing by going against the crowd when sentiment is at extremes. During points of excess greed or fear, the consensus is usually wrong.

Think about the top of the dot-com boom and the bottom of the COVID crash as examples. Markets moved violently in the opposite direction in both of those cases. During the dot-com bubble at the top of the market in 2000, investors were so greedy that doctors, lawyers, and cab drivers were quitting their jobs to trade internet stocks.

I would talk to CEOs of publicly traded companies who had no business model, no revenue, and certainly no profits or cash flow. I would ask them how they were going to keep paying their employees, and they would tell me, “You don’t understand the new paradigm.” And then their stocks would go up another 10 points that day.

It was true. I didn’t understand it. But I understood math and knew that if you run out of money, you can’t keep the lights on. As the dot-com boom continued to inflate and the companies’ financials deteriorated, I avoided nearly all of these stocks, while analysts, internet message boards, and CNBC all breathlessly cheered these garbage companies higher until the music stopped and there weren’t enough chairs.

Millions of investors lost their shirts.

During the crash in early 2020 after the pandemic shut down the global economy, investors headed for the exits quickly, only to watch from the sidelines as stocks quickly rebounded.

Investors who still bore the scars from the 2008 global financial crisis swore off the markets forever, claiming they were akin to a casino.

Meanwhile, the S&P is up 183% since the bottom of the 2020 bear market.

Twenty years ago, my career took a dramatic turn. I was hired by Avalon Research Group, the most contrarian research firm on Wall Street. We were only allowed to initiate coverage on stocks if it went against the consensus.

The firm poked lots of holes in the hype surrounding many popular stocks – so much so that the founders had to hire security after receiving death threats. How’s that for extreme sentiment?

At Avalon, we were right way more often than we were wrong.

I still go against the grain when sentiment is at an extreme. I love nothing more than buying a stock that most or all of the analysts rate a “Hold” or “Sell” or buying stock of a quality company that has been hammered after an earnings miss, despite positive results.

You can’t simply be contrarian for the sake of being contrarian. But when markets make big moves because of extreme sentiment, it’s usually profitable to take the opposite trade.

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Position Sizing: Don’t Put All Your Eggs in One Basket https://wealthyretirement.com/financial-literacy/position-sizing-dont-put-all-your-eggs-in-one-basket/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/financial-literacy/position-sizing-dont-put-all-your-eggs-in-one-basket/#respond Sat, 12 Apr 2025 15:30:17 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=33638 Don’t commit the cardinal sin of investing...

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Editor’s Note: Our friend Karim Rahemtulla does a fantastic job of helping his readers stay grounded while most other investors are panicking.

So today, I’m sharing Karim’s best tips for position sizing and protecting your wealth when markets look bleak.

To read more insights from Karim and his team at Monument Traders Alliance, check out their website.

– James Ogletree, Managing Editor


One of the cardinal sins in investing is putting too many eggs in one basket. When your portfolio is heavily skewed towards a few positions, you’re walking a tightrope.

A significant downturn in just one of these investments can send your entire portfolio into a tailspin.

There’s no doubt we’re in rough waters right now. The market landscape ahead is as unpredictable as it’s been since the pandemic hit.

Things could turn out just fine, and that’s what we’re all hoping for. But it would be naive to ignore how swiftly the market can change course, as we’ve seen in recent weeks.

The Art of Position Sizing

So, how do we protect ourselves?

Enter the concept of position sizing.

It’s not just about picking the right stocks. It’s about deciding how much of your portfolio each stock should occupy. Here are some approaches to consider:

  1. The Fixed Dollar Approach: Invest a set amount – say, $1,000 – in each position regardless of the stock price.
  2. The Percentage Play: Allocate a fixed percentage of your portfolio to each investment, perhaps 5% or 10%.
  3. Volatility-Based Sizing: Adjust your position size based on the stock’s volatility, using indicators like the Average True Range (ATR). It calculates the average range between the high and low prices of an asset over a specific period, typically 14 days. ATR doesn’t predict price direction, but it shows how much an asset typically moves in a given timeframe.
  4. Risk-Based Allocation: Calculate your position size based on your risk tolerance for each trade, often tied to your stop-loss strategy.

Each method has its merits, and the best choice depends on your personal risk tolerance, strategy, and financial goals.

Personally, I’ve always favored capping individual stock positions at 4% of my portfolio (excluding income-focused investments like preferred stocks or bonds).

The Power of Preparedness

Remember, position sizing isn’t about predicting the future. It’s about being prepared for whatever comes.

By thoughtfully distributing your investments, you’re not just protecting yourself from potential losses; you’re positioning yourself to capitalize on opportunities as they arise.

In these uncertain times, a well-balanced portfolio isn’t just a good idea – it’s your financial life jacket.

So take a hard look at your investments.

Are you overexposed in any areas?

Now’s the time to make those adjustments. After all, in the world of investing, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

YOUR ACTION PLAN

  1. Portfolio Audit: Identify positions exceeding 4% of your total portfolio value.
  2. Strategic Rebalancing: Consider trimming overweight positions to align with your 4% risk threshold.
  3. Opportunity Watchlist: Create a list of potential buys with ATR-based entry prices.
  4. Stay Informed: Set up price alerts for both current holdings and watchlist stocks.
  5. Regular Reassessment: Schedule periodic portfolio reviews to maintain optimal position sizes.

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What to Do When All Hell Is Breaking Loose https://wealthyretirement.com/financial-literacy/what-to-do-when-all-hell-is-breaking-loose/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/financial-literacy/what-to-do-when-all-hell-is-breaking-loose/#respond Fri, 04 Apr 2025 20:30:26 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=33634 Like a brave firefighter or championship-winning athlete, the best investors remain calm under pressure.

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Editor’s Note: With President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs sending the markets into a tailspin, I decided to share this column Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld wrote several years ago in lieu of a new Value Meter today.

The S&P 500 fell 4.84% yesterday, marking its worst day since June 2020, and the sell-off continued today. There’s no doubt that kind of pullback stings. I know many of you are concerned right now, and truthfully, I am too.

But I also know that there’s no one I trust more than Marc to guide us through this kind of market. One of Marc’s readers, Bryan, said it best when he wrote, “Marc, I can’t thank you enough for your level head when it comes to investing long-term.”

It’s much easier said than done, I know… but stay the course. This, too, shall pass.

– James Ogletree, Managing Editor


A trait that most people find impressive is the ability to remain calm under pressure.

Think about who we look up to…

Politicians who lead during a disaster. Police officers, firefighters, and paramedics who can tune out the chaos around them to accomplish what needs to be done. Athletes, like a quarterback who stands in the pocket despite a massive pass rush and delivers a perfect spiral for a touchdown. And let’s not forget the parents who, when faced with their child’s health emergency, are able to reassure the child and keep him or her calm, despite their own worst fears.

It’s not just the ability to give a speech, spray water on a fire, throw a football, or speak soothingly to a child that makes these people exceptional. It’s the fact that they do it when fear and outside forces would make the task impossibly difficult for most people.

For some reason, investing is different. I’ve seen people act like rocks in the face of serious family crises yet panic during a stock market sell-off.

The reality is that bear markets – and outright panics like we had in 2008 and 2020 – happen every so often. They’re part of the natural cycle of markets.

But investors who can hang in there during a market collapse stand to make a lot of money by following these three steps.

1. Position your money properly.

If any funds that you need in the next three years are invested in the market, take them out. You can’t afford to lose that money if you need it to pay the mortgage, healthcare premiums, or college tuition.

Now, your long-term money isn’t affected by a market meltdown. Who knows where the market will be five or 10 years from now? Think about if you were invested in 2008. In five years, you were made whole.

But if you need the $10,000 you invested in the market to pay next year’s mortgage and it’s now worth only $5,000, that’s a problem.

2. Use stops.

The Oxford Club is an advocate of using trailing stops. That way, you protect your profits and don’t let small losses become devastating losses.

During market collapses, it’s very easy to justify removing your stops, because nothing fundamentally has changed in the company and no one wants to get stopped out because of other people’s panic. But you put your stops in for a reason, and you did it without emotion. Removing stops during a market sell-off is usually an emotionally driven response and is almost always a bad idea. Stick to your stops.

3. Keep a “market sell-off fund.”

Always have a stash of cash to be deployed when the market is tanking. Will you catch the bottom? Probably not, but you’ll pick up some stocks that you’ve had your eye on for cheaper than you would have earlier.

This money should be used only when the markets look awful – when there’s panic in the air and the proverbial blood in the streets. It’s going to be very scary to buy when everyone else is selling, especially when all of the news is bleak and the media is trying to frighten you. But in a few years (and likely sooner), you’ll be very glad you did.

Again, look back to 2008 and 2009. I bet you wish you had deployed a bunch of cash into that market. It would have been uncomfortable. People would have told you you were a few beers short of a six-pack, but it would have been the right thing to do.

The tough part about a steep market sell-off is that no one knows when it’s going to end. And it often seems like it never will. Many times, in the midst of a big drop, I’ve facetiously said to colleagues, “This market is going to zero.” Because that’s what it felt like.

But if you can remain calm, channel your inner Peyton Manning, and step up in the pocket despite all hell breaking loose around you, you’ll wind up both financially and emotionally better off. And you’ll be the envy of your friends, who will be amazed you can be so unruffled while everyone else is freaking out.

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The #1 Question Every Investor Should Be Asking https://wealthyretirement.com/financial-literacy/the-1-question-every-investor-should-be-asking/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/financial-literacy/the-1-question-every-investor-should-be-asking/#respond Tue, 18 Mar 2025 20:30:47 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=33550 This question will help you avoid making a colossal mistake.

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A friend who is a bit younger than me told me that his financial advisor recommended selling his stocks in favor of bond funds because of the coming bear market. He asked me what I thought.

“That’s the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard, and you should fire them,” I said emphatically.

My friend was caught off-guard. “Why?” he asked.

“How do they know there’s going to be a bear market?” I retorted.

I elaborated that even the smartest and most successful economists, bankers, investors, and traders in the world can’t time the market. But this guy who cold calls people for a bank in Akron knows there’s going to be a bear market?

Then I asked my friend the most important question all investors should be asking themselves.

“How would a bear market affect you?”

Since 1900, the U.S. stock market has returned an average of 9.7% per year. That includes corrections, run-of-the-mill bear markets, and market crashes like the Great Depression, the dot-com crash, and the global financial crisis.

In order to capture that nearly double-digit annual gain, it’s important to stay in the market.

However, if you’ll need the money soon, that’s a different story.

I always recommend that any money you’ll need within three years not be invested in the market. That’s not because I think there’s a bear market coming – I make the same suggestion in the middle of raging bull markets. It’s because you never know what’s going to happen, and if you need cash in the short to intermediate term to pay bills, it shouldn’t be exposed to that much risk.

My friend is in his 40s, so he’s presumably 20 years from retirement. If the market crashed and stayed down for the next three years, he might not feel great when he checked his account statements, but it would have no effect on his ability to pay his mortgage or put food on the table.

Sure, it’s not fun to see your net worth go down. When that happens, people feel pessimistic and they may cut back their spending. But if the decline won’t impact your ability to do the things you need and want to do, making any moves simply because the market is falling is a terrible mistake.

You’ll never – and I mean NEVER – get back in near the bottom. That’s when things feel the worst. Don’t kid yourself by saying you’ll get out now and get back in when the market is lower. You won’t.

The only way you’ll buy near the bottom is if you have a system in place and stick to it. For example, you might invest every month or every quarter regardless of how the market’s looking.

If you sell because you’re worried about stocks going down, you’ll certainly miss the next move up – and probably for a while, because you’ll be gun-shy about getting back in. That’s just human nature.

If a bear market would not affect your ability to live the life you want within the next few years, ignore the news – including what’s going on in the market – and don’t do anything (other than perhaps putting more money to work).

If, on the other hand, a down market would negatively affect your lifestyle, then whatever amount of money you’ll need to live your life on your terms should be in safer investments, such as cash or individual bonds (not bond funds). These will help you generate income and ensure you get your capital back no matter what’s happening in the markets.

Answering the question “How would a bear market affect me?” and taking the appropriate action – even if it’s doing nothing – should alleviate a lot of the stress associated with falling markets.

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Today Is the Perfect Day to Buy Bonds https://wealthyretirement.com/bond-investing/today-is-the-perfect-day-to-buy-bonds/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/bond-investing/today-is-the-perfect-day-to-buy-bonds/#respond Tue, 31 Oct 2023 20:30:46 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=31392 The best time to buy bonds was yesterday. The second-best time is today.

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Last month, I suggested that now is the perfect time to buy bonds. This weekend, Barron’s agreed, running a headline that said, “Time to Buy Bonds.”

While I continue to hold dividend stocks for the long term, lately I’ve been putting most of my cash to work in fixed income.

Treasurys are yielding more than they have since 2007. Investment-grade corporate bonds – those with very safe S&P Global ratings of BBB- or higher – have an average yield of 6.3%, their highest yield in nearly 15 years.

Meanwhile, non-investment-grade bonds, or junk bonds, are yielding an average of 9%. While these are more speculative than investment-grade bonds, they are still more conservative than stocks – even blue chip stocks.

Here’s why…

There’s a very key difference between stocks and bonds.

A stock is worth only what someone is willing to pay for it at a given time.

A bond is worth $1,000 at maturity regardless of what anyone is willing to pay for it at any time.

Here’s what I mean.

When you buy a stock, the only way to make money on it is to sell it for more than you paid. When you want to sell the stock, you have to hope the price is higher than it was when you bought it.

With a bond, you know what the exact price of the bond will be on a certain future date. On the bond’s maturity date, you will receive $1,000 unless the company has gone bankrupt. Barring that unlikely scenario, you will get $1,000, regardless of whether you paid $1,000, $900 or $500 for the bond. You’ll also collect interest along the way.

It’s important to realize that even if the price of the bond falls while you own it, that won’t affect your eventual payout. At maturity, you will be paid $1,000.

So let’s say you buy a bond with a 5% coupon that matures on November 1, 2026. Right after you buy the bond, the company posts bad news and the bond drops to $950. A year later, there’s more bad news, and the bond market starts getting scared. Your bond drops all the way to $700, which is a big move in the bond market.

As we approach November 1, 2026, the bond’s price starts moving closer to the $1,000 mark. On that date, the bond matures and you are paid $1,000. It doesn’t matter that the market lost confidence in the bond two years earlier and the bond was trading at a huge discount. The bond will pay $1,000 at maturity no matter what.

The stock market has been a mess for two years. The S&P 500 is up this year, but that’s mostly due to seven Big Tech stocks. Most stocks in the market are down… and many are down big.

And this bear market shows no signs of slowing down in the near future.

When you can earn more than 5% risk-free in the short term in Treasurys, more than 6% in safe corporate bonds or even 9% in more speculative bonds and get your money back, you have to ask yourself whether it’s worth it to risk your cash in stocks, which historically average a return of 8% to 10% per year but involve much more volatility.

My long-term money is still invested in stocks because I (hopefully) have plenty of time for those stocks to grow. But my funds that I’ll need in the shorter term are in bonds right now.

I have a bunch of bonds maturing between now and the end of the year, and I’m excited about the safe income-producing opportunities we have now that weren’t available just a year ago.

You rarely hear someone pounding the table on bonds.

I am.

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Let It Bleed and Earn 12% per Year https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/let-it-bleed-and-earn-12-percent-per-year/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/let-it-bleed-and-earn-12-percent-per-year/#respond Tue, 02 May 2023 20:30:05 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=30566 Don’t let scary headlines ruin your ability to earn double digits in the market.

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“We all need someone we can bleed on,
And if you want it, you can bleed on me”
– The Rolling Stones

You know the expression “If it bleeds, it leads.” And there’s a lot of bleeding going on right now.

A short list of very serious issues in the world includes…

  • The U.S. debt ceiling
  • War in Ukraine
  • The regional bank crisis
  • China’s aggression toward Taiwan
  • Fear of recession in the U.S.
  • Clowns in Washington on both sides who are focused on making the other party look bad rather than governing.

And, of course, there are many others.

Despite these very real problems, the S&P 500 is up 7.3% year to date. While we’re still below the peak from January 2022, the market is starting to make a comeback, though it doesn’t always feel like it.

Everywhere you look there are reasons to be concerned about the market and your money. Maybe the recent rise in the market is just a rebound in the middle of a bear market. The statistics, though, say this bear market should be close to over.

The past 12 bear markets lasted an average of 14 months. The current bear market is now 14 months long. That’s no guarantee we’re at the finish line, but it suggests we’re closer to the end than the beginning.

From peak to trough, this bear market lost 28%. The average bear market falls 33%.

But here’s what’s important to remember…

The bulls are stronger than the bears.

Bull markets last an average of 60 months and advance 165% during that time. A drop of 33% every five years or so is painful, but not in the context of it occurring after a 165% gain.

Think of it this way… If you invested $10,000 and saw a 165% return over the next five years, you’d have $26,500. Now, if you lost 33% of that over the following 14 months in the next bear market, you’d be left with $17,677.

A more than $8,000 haircut would hurt, no doubt about it. But if you look at the big picture, over the six years and two months, you’d have a nearly 77% return.

Chart: Growth of $10,000 Through an Average Bull and Bear Market
That comes out to a compound annual growth rate of 9.7%. And that’s without dividends. Add another 2% or so for dividends, and you’re generating a return of roughly 12%.

If someone told you that you could make nearly 12% a year for six years, you’d probably grab that deal.

Of course, there are no guarantees in the stock market. Bear markets can run longer and go deeper than the historical averages. But over the long term, the numbers are consistent.

And that’s regardless of what bozo has been in the White House, what wars have started, what scandals have erupted and all of the other calamities that we have to deal with on a regular basis. And there have been many in all of those categories.

Don’t let scary headlines and real problems ruin your ability to earn what should come out to an average of 12% per year if you stick with the market.

There’s always a reason to be worried. The long-term performance of the market is not one of them.

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Use the Bear Market to Pick Up Discounted Dividends https://wealthyretirement.com/dividend-investing/use-bear-market-pick-up-discounted-dividends/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/dividend-investing/use-bear-market-pick-up-discounted-dividends/#respond Tue, 13 Dec 2022 21:30:08 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=29885 The bear market of 2022 was the best thing to happen to income investors in a long time.

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Last week, while speaking at a conference in Tokyo, I told the audience that the bear market of 2022 was the best thing to happen to income investors in a long time.

Not only did rising interest rates make it possible to finally earn a decent yield on fixed income investments, but depressed stock prices pushed yields higher.

As a result, today you can pick up some terrific, high-quality companies at a discount to where they were trading a year ago, despite growing earnings. And the best part is you’ll earn a strong dividend yield.

Let’s take a look at a few dividend stocks now trading at a discount.

  1. Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO)A year ago, if you’d bought shares of Bank of Montreal, you’d have forked over around $108 per share. Today, you’ll pay a little over $90.

    Earnings per share have grown 20% over the past five years and are projected to grow 5% next year. Meanwhile, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9, it’s trading 15% below its five-year average P/E.

    The stock yields 4.5%. If you’d bought it a year ago, you’d be earning a 3.8% yield.

    Here’s another one…

  1. Global Ship Lease (NYSE: GSL)Global Ship Lease has a big 8.8% dividend yield. Had you bought the stock a year ago when it was trading above $22, you’d be earning two percentage points less.

    Global Ship Lease is forecast to grow earnings 10% next year. The expected $8.62 in earnings per share in 2023 means the stock trades at a ridiculously low two times projected earnings.

  1. HP Inc. (NYSE: HPQ)Lastly, HP Inc., previously known as Hewlett-Packard, is trading at a significant discount to where it was a year ago. Today, the stock is roughly 25% lower than where it was last December, despite expected 10% earnings growth in fiscal 2024.

    The stock trades at just seven times earnings, a near 30% discount to its five-year average and a stunning 60% discount to its sector average.

    Today, the stock yields 3.7%. But if you’d bought the stock a year ago, you wouldn’t even be earning 3%.

These are just a few examples of why a bear market can be a long-term investor’s best friend. You get the opportunity to pick up cheaper shares and higher yields on companies that are growing despite their recent stock prices.

Good investing,

Marc

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Insights From the Middle of a Bear Market https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/insights-from-middle-bear-market/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/insights-from-middle-bear-market/#respond Tue, 25 Oct 2022 20:30:47 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=29638 Seeing your savings decline is an awful feeling, but history can tell you what to do right now.

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A friend recently came into a little bit of money. It wasn’t a life-changing amount, but it was badly needed, as she had very little in savings.

She used a financial advisor that her siblings had been using for years and put the money to work at the end of the summer.

If you’ve been following the markets, you know what happened next. From August 16 to October 13, the S&P 500 slid 19%. It’s recovered a little since then but is still down 12% from that date.

Perspectives on a Bear Market

So my friend, who was excited about having a small nest egg for the first time in her life, is suddenly down double digits in a very short period of time. Needless to say, she is concerned.

I explained to her that the market took a big tumble right at the time the money was invested. It was bad luck and not anything that the advisor did wrong.

More importantly, I reminded her, this is money she plans on keeping invested for at least the next 10 years, maybe longer – and that markets go up over the long term.

I also pointed out that while it’s certainly frustrating to be down more than 10% in the short term, she still invested her money 10% lower than she would have had she invested at the beginning of the year.

I offered some perspective.

Chart: S&P 500 Since Inception - 1928 to present
Since 1929, stocks have risen roughly 78% of the time. Nearly 4 out of every 5 days. Of course, in a bear market, it can be the opposite, with lots of bad days strung together. But if you’re invested for even a few years, the odds are you’re going to make money.

Since 1945, we’ve experienced a bear market roughly once every 5 1/2 years. In other words, bear markets happen. Though not pleasant, they’re not exceptional. If you invest long enough, you will endure multiple bear markets.

Bear markets last an average of 9 1/2 months and drop an average of 36%. That’s a big decline in a short period of time. Scary stuff. But they don’t last forever… And even the bear markets that are particularly bad actually recover fairly quickly.

On the other hand, the average bull market lasts for nearly three years and rises 102%.

So if you invested and stocks immediately went into an average bear market, followed by an average bull market, you’d be up a little more than 29% in just over 3 1/2 years, or an average of 8% per year, which is a decent return.

Of course, a bear could be worse than average and a bull could be less than average. But you can clearly see that nearly a century of market activity shows that regardless of short-term downward swings, you want to be in the market so that you are invested when things inevitably reverse and move higher – like they always have.

Seeing your savings decline is an awful feeling, whether you’re a new investor or an experienced one… whether your account is worth seven figures or three figures. No one wants to lose money.

But if you ignore the short-term volatility and stay in the market, history proves that you won’t.

Good investing,

Marc

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