In this special “new year” edition of Wealthy Retirement, we’re running a stock through the Safety Net model and The Value Meter… at the same time.

Using these two popular methodologies in tandem – one for dividend safety, the other for valuation – can give us a more complete picture of whether a stock is worth investing in.

Without further ado, here’s the first-ever combined edition of Safety Net and The Value Meter… featuring a company that just made a potentially industry-changing announcement.

Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld

Safety Net

Now that the calendar has turned to 2026, lots of folks are making promises to themselves that they won’t keep. However, one resolution just got much easier.

Losing weight.

GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) drugs have been game changers for patients and the pharmaceutical companies that make them. Now, oral GLP-1 drugs will again move the needle significantly for customers and drugmakers.

Last week, Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) received FDA approval for an oral version of Wegovy, which was previously available by injection only. The change to the company’s financial picture will be momentous.

We won’t have the full 2025 figures until next month, but free cash flow is projected to come in at $7.7 billion, a 28% decline from 2024’s $10.7 billion and 36% below 2023’s total.

However, because of the new approval, free cash flow is expected to jump 34% to $10.3 billion in 2026 and another 27% in 2027 to $13.2 billion.

The sharp decline in 2025’s free cash flow costs Novo Nordisk a couple of points on its dividend safety rating.

Another issue is the payout ratio.

Novo Nordisk is expected to have paid shareholders $7.1 billion in dividends in 2025. If free cash flow slid 28% as projected, the payout ratio would rise to 92%, which is way too high.

This year’s projected $8.1 billion in dividends would lead to a payout ratio of 78% based on the consensus cash flow estimate. That is also too high, but it’s within spitting distance of the 75% threshold for Safety Net. If cash flow is a little higher than expected (or dividends paid is a little lower) in 2026, the payout ratio may come in below the 75% level, and the company would not be penalized.

In 2025, American investors received two semiannual dividends totaling $1.73 per share, which comes out to a 3.3% dividend yield.

In its local currency, the Danish krone, Novo Nordisk has raised its dividend for 31 consecutive years – though American investors may have seen slight reductions because of currency fluctuations.

Due to falling cash flow and a too-high payout ratio, Novo Nordisk’s dividend safety rating is low. But this is an unusual situation with the company’s fortunes about to change dramatically due to oral Wegovy.

Combine that with a three-decade run of annual dividend increases and a likely upgrade this year, and the dividend should be okay despite the poor rating.

Dividend Safety Rating: D

Director of Trading Anthony Summers

The Value Meter

Sometimes the best businesses make only decent stocks – not because the company slips, but because expectations outrun what the cash can reasonably deliver.

That’s the situation with Novo Nordisk today. The business is still excellent. The stock, after a long reset, is finally being treated with more discipline.

The company is the unquestioned global leader in diabetes and obesity treatments. And Ozempic and Wegovy – overnight name brands, it seems – have reshaped how investors think about the company.

For a while, the market assumed that dominance meant inevitability. But recent results remind us that even great businesses have limits.

Over the first nine months of 2025, sales rose 12%, or 15% at constant exchange rates. Operating profit increased 5%, held back by roughly 9 billion kroner (roughly $1.4 billion) in restructuring costs tied to a companywide transformation. Free cash flow came in at 63.9 billion kroner (about $10.1 billion). That’s lower than the previous year, but still substantial.

Capital spending climbed as Novo expanded its manufacturing capacity. That spending isn’t optional. It’s the cost of staying competitive in GLP-1 therapies. Management also narrowed guidance and lowered growth expectations for diabetes and obesity treatments.

Novo trades at an enterprise value-to-net asset value ratio of 8.43, well above the universe average of 3.82. On that metric alone, the stock still looks expensive. The market continues to pay a premium for quality.

Cash flow is what keeps that premium from becoming a problem. Novo generates quarterly free cash flow equal to 11.28% of its net asset value. The universe average is just 1.12%. In plain terms, the company turns its assets into cash about 10 times more efficiently than the typical company. That matters.

Novo is consistent too. While the Safety Net model rewards year-over-year cash flow growth, The Value Meter prioritizes quarter-over-quarter growth. Over the past 12 quarters, the company grew its quarterly free cash flow 54.5% of the time, compared with 46.7% for peers. It also produced positive free cash flow in each of the past 12 quarters.

This isn’t a lucky stretch. It’s a durable pattern.

As we saw above, however, the stock has gone through a humbling year. Shares peaked in mid-2024 and slid through much of 2025.

That move wasn’t driven by collapsing fundamentals. It was driven by disappointment. Investors stopped paying for perfection.

That change is important. Novo is not cheap in absolute terms. You are still paying for elite assets. But you are no longer paying as if nothing can go wrong.

The business earns its valuation. The balance sheet is strong. The cash engine is real. What’s different now is the margin of safety. After the sell-off, it finally exists.

This isn’t a stock for traders chasing excitement. It’s for patient investors who want exposure to a world-class cash producer after expectations have cooled. The upside may be quieter from here, but it no longer depends on flawless execution.

The Value Meter rates Novo Nordisk as “Slightly Undervalued.”

The post Novo Nordisk: What’s Next for the Pharma Giant? appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

It seems like no one knows what to think about AI stocks these days.

For every expert screaming “full speed ahead!”, there’s another one warning investors to pump the brakes.

Last week, our friends at MarketBeat invited Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld onto their YouTube channel for an interview on this very topic.

Was the recent shakiness in the sector just a blip on the radar… or something more?

How concerned should investors be about buying stocks at 52-week highs?

And most importantly, is AI in a “bubble”… and if so, when will it pop?

Marc answers all these questions during the interview and even provides two free stock picks:

• A growth play that operates in an AI hotbed and counts Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) and Meta Platforms (Nasdaq: META) among its customers
• A defensive agriculture play that gives investors the best of both worlds: a hedge against AI while still maintaining exposure to it.

To watch the interview and get Marc’s two free picks, click here or on the image above.

The post Will the AI Bubble Burst in 2026? appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

If you’ve been reading the recent headlines in the financial media, you might think the sky is falling:

“We will have a crash”

“Of course it’s a bubble”

‘Absolutely’ a market bubble: Wall Street sounds the alarm on AI-driven boom as investors go all in

Stocks have literally never been this expensive

But here at The Oxford Club, our strategists, researchers, and Members don’t just blindly follow the crowd. We stay grounded, think for ourselves, and come to our own conclusions.

That’s why we invited Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld into The Oxford Clubroom on Thursday to share what he’s been seeing in the markets lately and break down some of the strategies and tools he uses on a daily basis.

Here’s just some of what he covered during the session:

• Why he’s not too worried about an AI bubble (despite all the fearmongers in the media)
• Some surprising data about buying at market highs and market lows
• The average length of bull markets and bear markets
• Why technical analysis can be so simple that a 5-year-old can understand it
• Three momentum indicators that reveal whether a stock is “overbought” or “oversold”
• His thoughts on the technology sector and how long the uptrend could continue
• A few sectors he’d avoid right now
• The chart pattern that has led to the strongest historical performance
• His latest thoughts on gold
• The one chart that EVERY investor should be paying attention to right now.

It’s not often that I include full Clubroom sessions in Wealthy Retirement, but since Marc covered so much ground, I thought it would be extremely useful to his readers.

To watch the full session, click the image above!

The post Are Stocks in a Bubble Right Now? appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld is a huge fan of companies with strong and growing cash flow. Anyone who’s spent just a few minutes around him knows that.

If you think I’m exaggerating… think again.

Marc recently told me a story about a salesman coming to his house to sell a certain company’s products. When Marc heard the name of the company, he replied, “Oh, I’ve heard of it. Great company. Generates a ton of cash flow.”

(The salesman, of course, wasn’t sure how to respond.)

Last week, Marc sat down for an interview with our friends at MarketBeat to discuss why investors should pay much more attention to cash flow than earnings.

He also gave away the names and tickers of two potential diamonds in the rough to buy now and two “ticking time bomb” stocks to avoid:

• An established drugmaker whose free cash flow is projected to triple this year
• An under-the-radar way to get exposure to the AI space
• A household name (literally) that has been bleeding billions of dollars for the past decade
• A company that he says is “complete garbage” and whose earnings are “a joke”!

Click the image above to watch the full interview and get the details on all four stocks!

The post 2 Stocks to Buy That Are Swimming in Cash appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

Will it reduce rates? If so, by how much? How cautious will Fed Chair Jerome Powell be when he addresses the media? How will the markets react?

The answers to all of these crucial questions are less than 24 hours away.

To help cut through the noise, I’ve asked our top two experts here in Wealthy Retirement – Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld and Director of Trading Anthony Summers – two simple questions: What should the Fed do… and what will it do?

What should the Fed do?

Marc: I’ve mentioned several times in the past that the Fed has two mandates. The first is to keep inflation in check. The second is to maintain full employment.

While President Trump has railed against Powell to lower interest rates, Powell has defied him, saying he wouldn’t do so until the data showed that rate cuts are warranted.

They now are.

Ask anyone whether inflation is under control, and they’ll tell you no. The consumer price index’s 0.4% rise in August and 2.9% increase year over year confirm that.

Jobs are deteriorating too. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said last Tuesday that there were 911,000 fewer nonfarm payroll jobs than previously reported. For the week ending September 6, there were 263,000 new unemployment claims, the most in four years.

A 25-basis-point rate cut to a range of 4% to 4.25% seems appropriate at this point.

Anthony: The Fed should cut by a quarter-point, or 25 basis points.

On the surface, the job market is softening – though there’s data that suggests the slowdown is somewhat concentrated in certain sectors – and overall economic growth looks shaky. But while inflation isn’t raging anymore, it’s not low either.

In this mix, tight policy could be doing more harm than good. A small cut supports hiring and cash flow for Main Street. It also offsets tariff drag that can slow demand.

All the Fed really needs to do right now is help the job market while keeping a close eye on prices. If inflation flares, pause. If hiring continues to weaken, cut once more.

Keep the mission simple, yet steady. That approach reduces recession risk without inviting a price spiral. It also keeps credit markets open for households and small firms.

What will the Fed do?

Marc: I suspect the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points. That’s not going to suddenly spark hiring, but it does put America on notice that rates are likely going to continue coming down. It’s a warning shot across the bow.

A 50-basis-point cut at this point would feel alarmist. If inflation was abnormally low, 50 basis points might make sense, but with the prices of everything from rent to food to TV subscriptions going higher (regardless of what the government data shows), not to mention the effect of tariffs, lowering rates too quickly could result in rip-roaring inflation.

The Fed has a balancing act to conduct. It needs to lower rates enough to fuel jobs, but not so much that it fans the inflation flames. It’s not an easy thing to manage.

Anthony: I think the Fed will likely do what it should do.

The most probable move is a 25-basis-point cut, but officials will stress that future actions will be determined “meeting by meeting.” They will nod to sticky inflation but frame it as manageable, pointing to softer hiring and cooler growth as the bigger risks today.

That opens the door to another cut if jobs data stays weak. They will not pre-commit to back-to-back moves – nor should they – but they will not rule it out either.

Tariff concerns will get a mention as a headwind. The Fed will avoid big promises about next year’s fiscal plans; that is outside its lane. So I’d expect a cautious tone and a split vote or two.

Markets will hear “one cut now, maybe more to come.” If the next jobs report disappoints, odds are the Fed will follow up with a cut. If inflation pops higher, the Fed will likely pause.

Marc and Anthony both expect a quarter-point cut tomorrow, but not everyone sees it the same way.

A columnist in the Financial Times argued last week that a rate cut would be an “alarmist reflex” and that “there is an equally strong case for a rate increase.”

On the other hand, British bank Standard Chartered supports a sizable reduction, writing that the slowing job market “has paved the way for a ‘catch-up’ 50-basis-point rate cut.”

However, the majority of economists agree with Marc and Anthony that a 25-basis-point reduction is both the most prudent and the most likely outcome.

Will they be right? We’ll know in less than 24 hours.

What do you think the Fed should do? More importantly, what will it do? Are you excited? Are you concerned? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

The post What the Fed Should (and Will) Do Next appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

“We can’t even imagine how our lives are going to change…”

In a recent interview with our friends at MarketBeat, our very own Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld made that bold declaration about quantum computing – an emerging tech field that he believes has a ton of potential.

When you hear those words from someone who had a front-row seat to the dot-com crash and is often skeptical of the fads that pop up and become the “next big thing” seemingly overnight…

It should catch your attention.

While Marc says AI is currently in “the third, maybe fourth inning” from an investment standpoint, he believes the quantum computing game is just getting underway.

In his view, that equates to a “much longer runway” and a better opportunity.

During the interview, Marc shared more about why he’s so bullish on quantum computing – and even listed three of his favorite stocks to capitalize on it.

Here’s just some of what he covered:

• What quantum computing is and how it could transform various industries
• Details on why he believes quantum computing has more upside than AI
• Two household names that are quietly positioning themselves to be leaders in the quantum computing space
• A lesser-known growth play with $1.7 billion in cash and no debt
• Why he loves investing in “pick and shovel” plays regardless of the sector.

To watch the full interview, “3 Quantum Computing Stocks That Could Change Everything,” click here or on the image above!

The post 3 Tech Stocks Making Big Strides appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

As I write this, the most popular ETF tracking the energy sector, the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE: XLE) has gained 0.4% year to date. Based on that alone, you might think it’s been an uneventful year for energy stocks.

In reality, it’s been the exact opposite.

There’s been a seemingly constant stream of news, from tariffs to President Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” mantra to sudden spikes and drops in oil prices. It’s all led to significant uncertainty among investors and plenty of great questions from you, our readers.

That’s why Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld joined Oxford Club Publisher Rachel Gearhart in The Oxford Clubroom (our live video and chat platform) on Tuesday morning to talk about all things energy.

Here’s just some of what they covered:

• Why Marc forecasts “massive demand for every source of energy” in the coming years
• His forecast for oil prices over the next 12 months and beyond
• The oil and gas partnership that had Marc saying, “You’re not supposed to have favorite stocks… but it’s one of my favorites”
• The new development that could give a big boost to the natural gas space
• A natural gas partnership with a 6% tax-deferred yield
• The factors that are converging to form a potential “nuclear renaissance”
• Marc’s two favorite companies that are involved in nuclear energy
• When Marc believes investors should “back up the truck” and increase their exposure to the energy sector.

Click the image above to watch the highlights from the session!

The post All Things Energy: Marc’s Top Plays in Oil, Natural Gas, Nuclear, and More appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

For those of us who work in the financial industry, the beginning of earnings season is right up there with Fourth of July fireworks, a legendary Thanksgiving dinner, and waking up on a snowy Christmas morning. (Well, maybe not. But it’s close.)

Why is it such a big deal, you ask? Because positive earnings news can be like rocket fuel for a stock… and negative news can be like quicksand.

More than 40 companies in the S&P 500 report earnings next week, more than 100 do so the following week, and more than 150 the week after that. Needless to say, you’ll be reading and hearing the word “earnings” a lot in the financial media for the foreseeable future.

With that in mind, I wanted to send around this episode of Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld’s YouTube series, State of the Market, where he explains how to make sense of earnings estimates, beats, and misses, Wall Street’s “Buy,” “Hold,” and “Sell” ratings, and – most importantly – how to determine the best way to navigate earnings season based on your personal investing goals.

Click the image above to watch Marc’s guide for mastering earnings season (featuring a cameo from renowned financial expert Cosmo Kramer).

The post Marc’s Guide to Mastering Earnings Season appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld spends most of his waking hours dispensing brilliant and insightful financial commentary. (Those are his words, not mine – but don’t worry, Marc, I wholeheartedly agree.)

In his spare time, though, he can often be found in crowded arenas, whipping a crowd into a frenzy before a big fight.

In case you weren’t aware, Marc is a Hall of Fame boxing ring announcer who’s announced fights on HBO, Showtime, and ESPN.

As he explains in this popular episode of his YouTube series, State of the Market, his boxing career has actually mirrored one of his favorite investing strategies.

Early on, he did lots of smaller fights that weren’t televised, where he’d have to hand the microphone to someone else after the cameras started rolling.

But as his career progressed, he started traveling the country to announce bigger events – and eventually got to the point where someone else was handing him the mic.

Compound interest works in much the same way. Just get started, create good habits, and focus on making steady progress, and – as Marc says in the video – “you’ll be astonished at how well you do down the road.”

To watch the episode (and see just how crazy your compounded returns can be), click the image above!

The post Compound Interest: The Heavyweight Strategy for Long-Term Wealth appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

After sharing the typical platitudes – “keep your head in the game,” “stay focused,” etc. – he finished by saying, “The mark of a young man is how he responds to adversity.”

I wish I could tell you that his pep talk spurred me on to a historic performance, culminating in my teammates carrying me off the golf course on their shoulders while chanting my name… but the rest of my round actually ended up being quite forgettable.

And yet, my coach’s words have still stuck with me more than a decade later.

Even though they were meant to encourage an emotionally fragile high schooler with a deeply flawed golf swing, I think they apply just as much to the current market environment.

Being able to stand tall and keep a level head in a turbulent market is never easy… but it’s essential to building wealth.

Luckily, that’s exactly what Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld – along with the rest of our strategists and experts here at The Oxford Club – is helping our Members do.

Beyond his insights in Wealthy Retirement, The Oxford Income Letter, and his VIP services, Marc has also held numerous live sessions with Members in The Oxford Clubroom (our interactive video chat room) over the past few months, easing their nerves with his calm and rational response to the chaos in the market.

Today, I’d like to do something I’ve never done before in Wealthy Retirement: share not one… not two… but THREE of Marc’s recent Clubroom sessions with you.

After the first, DavidLK posted in the Clubroom chat, “Exceptional Clubroom information – Thank you Marc for making me great returns with bonds! I used to trade mostly stocks – now I mostly trade bonds using Marc’s recommendations!”

After the second, AlfredoNV wrote, “Thanks for revisiting why to build a balanced portfolio!”

And after the third, Teelo said, “Thank you Marc and Alex for giving us confidence to stay in the market!”

I hope these videos are helpful, and remember…

The mark of a successful investor is how they respond to adversity.

Marc’s Near-Perfect Investing Strategy

 

Anyone who has a 99.1% success rate in anything ought to be taken very seriously…

And that’s exactly what Marc has accomplished in his Oxford Bond Advantage service. (That’s 113 wins out of 114 recommendations. Not too shabby!)

Recently, Marc and Oxford Club CEO Todd Skousen sat down to discuss Marc’s specific bond criteria, why everyone – yes, everyone – should own bonds, and The Oxford Club’s overall asset allocation model.

The Best Alternatives to Stocks

 

With the market suffering from a seemingly constant barrage of “news grenades,” it’s prudent to consider alternatives to stocks.

In this session, Marc, Todd, and Rich Checkan, the Club’s go-to gold expert, met to chat about bonds, gold, and more.

For anyone wondering whether they should buy bonds or gold right now, Marc says the answer is… both!

Tariff-Driven Opportunities With Alex and Marc

 

Last week, Marc joined Chief Investment Strategist Alexander Green to discuss what’s likely been the biggest topic in America so far in 2025: tariffs.

The two discussed the Trump administration’s approach to tariffs, its effect on the market, and whether stocks are near the bottom or still have more room to fall.

But most importantly, they answered viewers’ questions and explained what investors can do to protect themselves in volatile markets.

The post Respond to Market Chaos Like a Champion appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.