market trends Archives - Wealthy Retirement https://wealthyretirement.com/tag/market-trends/ Retire Rich... Retire Early. Fri, 10 Jan 2025 18:57:13 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8.3 The Value Meter: More Than Just Another Stock-Rating Tool https://wealthyretirement.com/income-opportunities/the-value-meter/the-value-meter-more-than-just-another-stock-rating-tool/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/income-opportunities/the-value-meter/the-value-meter-more-than-just-another-stock-rating-tool/#respond Fri, 10 Jan 2025 21:30:53 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=33278 This kind of predictive power can save investors from serious losses...

The post The Value Meter: More Than Just Another Stock-Rating Tool appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

]]>
When I first developed the Value Meter system, I wanted to create something different from the usual stock-picking tools. Rather than chase the latest market fads or rely on gut feelings, I aimed to create a straightforward way to spot whether stocks were truly cheap or expensive.

Looking at the results from 2024, I’m pleased to say it’s done exactly that – and then some. Let me show you what I mean with some hard numbers.

Chart: The Power of The Value Mater

Stocks that scored below 3 on our Value Meter scale, suggesting they were undervalued, have gained an average of 4.3% in just 119 days. Stretch that out over a full year, and you’re looking at a projected 13.6% return. Not too shabby in today’s choppy market.

On the other hand, stocks that scored above 3 on our scale have dropped by an average of 11.8% in 114 days – a stunning 42.2% annualized loss.

Even more telling is that since we started including Value Meter scores last May, every single stock that’s fallen by 15% or more had a score above 3.6.

That’s not just correlation; that’s the kind of predictive power that can save investors from serious losses.

So what makes The Value Meter different from other stock rating systems? For one thing, it doesn’t get distracted by surface-level metrics like revenue or price-to-earnings ratio, which often lack context. Instead, it digs deeper into what really matters: how efficiently companies turn their assets into cold, hard cash.

Think of it like buying a house. You wouldn’t just look at the asking price, would you? Of course not. You’d check the condition of the roof, scope out the neighborhood, and research what similar homes have sold for recently. The Value Meter applies that same thorough approach to stocks.

The system zeros in on three crucial factors:

  • Enterprise value: how much you’d have to pay to buy the whole company, including all of its outstanding shares
  • Net asset value: what the company owns minus what it owes
  • Free cash flow: how much cash the business generates from its operations.

By weaving these pieces together, we get a crystal-clear picture of whether a stock is truly cheap or expensive. And as the numbers above show, this approach has been remarkably good at spotting both bargains and danger zones.

But here’s what really sets The Value Meter apart: It doesn’t just find cheap stocks – it finds cheap stocks that are worth buying. Plenty of stocks look cheap, but The Value Meter helps separate the real bargains from the value traps thanks to its laserlike focus on cash generation.

Now, keep in mind that no investing tool is perfect. But in a market where hype often drowns out reality, having a reliable tool to measure true value is more important than ever – and The Value Meter is proving to be one of the sharpest tools we’ve got.

Looking ahead to 2025, I expect The Value Meter to keep doing what it does best: steer investors away from overvalued stocks while pointing them toward undervalued companies with rock-solid fundamentals.

Be excellent,

Anthony

P.S. What stocks would you like me to run through The Value Meter next? Post the ticker symbols in the comments section below.

The post The Value Meter: More Than Just Another Stock-Rating Tool appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

]]>
https://wealthyretirement.com/income-opportunities/the-value-meter/the-value-meter-more-than-just-another-stock-rating-tool/feed/ 0
Alexander Green’s Secret Checklist for Picking Winning Stocks https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/10-steps-finding-best-stock-buy/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/10-steps-finding-best-stock-buy/#respond Mon, 02 Dec 2019 21:30:42 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=22591 Alexander Green shares his checklist for finding the best stocks to buy.

The post Alexander Green’s Secret Checklist for Picking Winning Stocks appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

]]>
Finding the best stocks to buy can be a challenge…

For the past few years, economic growth has been lackluster at best.

But we may finally be picking up speed…

During the third quarter, the U.S. economy grew 2.1%. That’s right on pace with the 2% growth we saw during the second quarter. What’s more, it beats the 1.9% estimate we were striving toward.

According to Chief Investment Strategist Alexander Green, it’s creating the perfect opportunity for momentum investors…

“Strong economic growth is improving momentum… And the sharp cut in taxes and federal regulations implemented by Trump has driven it,” Alex says. “Anything that makes it easier to start or expand a business is good for business, good for sales, good for earnings.”

And subscribers to Alex’s VIP Trading Service The Momentum Alert are reaping the benefits.

Momentum Alert subscribers have had the opportunity to land big winners, including a 1,024% gain on Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) and a 1,121%% gain on Skyworks Solutions Inc. (Nasdaq: SWKS).

A Winning Checklist for Finding the Best Stocks to Buy

Here’s Alex’s foolproof checklist for identifying high-flying momentum companies like Chipotle and Skyworks:

Double-digit sales growth. “You have to see robust top-line growth in order to get really dramatic bottom-line growth.”

Earnings growth of 20% or better for at least three years. “It’s natural for people to think that after three years of 20% growth, the big move is already behind the company.

“But companies tend to get in a profitable niche, find an industry where they’ve got a competitive advantage and exploit it… and they have several years of extraordinary growth. That’s why we want at least three years of 20% or better earnings growth.”

Earnings growth of 25% or better in the most recent quarter. “We want those earnings to even be accelerating in the most recent quarter, so for the most recent earnings, we want to see 25% or better growth in net income.”

Return on equity of 17% or better. “Even though this is a growth methodology and Warren Buffett uses a value methodology… he says the single most important criterion when he’s evaluating companies for purchase is whether they have a high return on equity; that’s how important it is. So we insist on that as well.”

Level of innovation. “A perfect example of this is Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL). It came out with the iMac, iPod, iTunes music store, iPhone and iPad, and new iterations of all these products…

“And because it was a great innovator, that led to strong sales growth, which led to strong earnings growth, which led to the stock making a dramatic move upward.”

High-quality management. “Just as every great sports franchise needs a Vince Lombardi or Bear Bryant or Phil Jackson or who-have-you to get the maximum out of the team, so do you have to have world-class management to get the best performance out of a stock.”

Timeline (within eight years of IPO). “Most of the companies that we buy are within eight years of their IPOs. They tend to be young, entrepreneurial companies and midcap stocks.”

Share buybacks. “When a company announces a big buyback, management is essentially betting their careers that the stock is undervalued; that’s a very strong indicator.

“The other reason stock buybacks are so positive is simply mathematical. If you’re buying back stock, you’re reducing the number of shares outstanding.

“If you’re growing the company’s earnings and you’re declining the number of shares outstanding, you get stronger growth and earnings per share, which are the primary short-term drivers of stock prices.”

Technical factors. “You never want to buy into a company that goes through what I call a ‘waterfall drop.’ That’s when the stock’s trading up and all of a sudden it goes down due to a bad piece of news.

“Studies show that stocks that have a waterfall drop, six months later they’re significantly lower than they were the day they dropped. So you never want to fight the technicals on the stock, and what you want to see is a stock rising on good volume.”

Institutional support. “The vast majority of the volume that takes place in the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq is not individual investors like you and me…

“It’s big pension plans and mutual funds and hedge funds and endowments, and you don’t want to be buying the stocks that these companies, these huge investors, are selling.”

Alex already goes through this checklist for subscribers to his Momentum Alert.

But if you’re looking to add more momentum stocks that aren’t in Alex’s portfolio, print out the above checklist and keep it by your computer.

The next time you buy a stock, go through Alex’s 10 parameters and check them off yourself.

It’s one of the best ways to ensure that your returns are growing as rapidly as the economy.

Good investing,

Rachel

The post Alexander Green’s Secret Checklist for Picking Winning Stocks appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

]]>
https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/10-steps-finding-best-stock-buy/feed/ 0
Learn From Warren Buffett’s Biggest Mistake https://wealthyretirement.com/trends/warren-buffett-mistake-not-investing-technology-sector/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/trends/warren-buffett-mistake-not-investing-technology-sector/#respond Thu, 16 Aug 2018 20:30:56 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=17659 Even the world’s greatest investor doesn’t always get it right - here’s how his loss could be your gain.

The post Learn From Warren Buffett’s Biggest Mistake appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

]]>
It’s a rare moment when Warren Buffett makes a mistake. But sometimes he does and, well, you’ve got to call a spade a spade. Even Buffett himself has admitted that he’s made some blunders.

And there’s a lesson to be learned from one of his biggest mistakes: It’s never too late. In today’s piece, I’ll explain exactly what that means – and how to apply that mindset to your own investing.

Buffett’s Blunder

Back during the dot-com boom and subsequent bust, Buffett avoided losing money on internet stocks. At the time, he said he wouldn’t invest in technology stocks because he didn’t understand the technology itself.

Then, in 2011, he began investing in IBM (NYSE: IBM). It was a so-so investment that did not live up to his expectations.

At the end of last year, he revealed that Berkshire Hathaway owned more than 160 million shares of Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL). There is no doubt that he owns (or wants to own) even more today. He also confessed that he wishes he would have bought shares of Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN). Like a lot of people, he didn’t think it would succeed the way it has.

Buffett left a lot of money on the table – billions of dollars for himself and for Berkshire shareholders.

But what he did in 2016 and 2017 – and even what he did with his poor IBM investment – is what you should really be paying attention to.

(Click to view larger image.)

And it’s why he may go down in history as the greatest investor of our time…

The Simple Solution

Buffett realized that he made a mistake by prejudging an entire sector. So he changed his ways by hiring people who understood the sector and who could help him invest wisely. Taking the time to understand the market made him billions more from his investments like Apple.

Change is tough, I know. I’ve been there as well. But as I look across my portfolio, I see the types of companies I would not have looked at twice a decade ago, for the same reasons that Buffett stated: I just didn’t understand them. It may not have cost me billions, but it has cost me a ton of potential profits.

How much money have YOU left on the table?

Think about this: A hundred years ago, the biggest U.S. publicly traded company was U.S. Steel (NYSE: X). Adjusted for inflation, it was worth around $47 billion. Fast-forward to today when the top five companies (based on valuation at the end of 2017) are technology companies. In fact, this month Apple surpassed $1 trillion in market value with Amazon close behind, breathing down its neck.

We all have comfort zones. We like companies that we’re used to. Names like GE and IBM are icons of the ’70s, ’80s and ’90s. But they have cost shareholders like you and me dearly, by either falling in value or not growing at the same rate as the market. Add in how much we’ve lost in opportunity cost… That’s just too depressing to think about!

But it’s not too late. If Buffett can change how he chooses investments – with a ton of due diligence – in his 80s, we should be able to do the same, at whatever age that might be. And rethinking how we invest could mean the difference between achieving our dreams early versus never at all.

So the next time you see a hot technology story, some new biotech claim or even something like cryptocurrency, put your initial instincts aside. Do some research. Try to understand the business or industry, and THEN make your decision. And, according to Buffett, if you’re not willing to put in at least six to eight hours a week on your portfolio, stick to investing in index funds.

Good investing,

Karim

The post Learn From Warren Buffett’s Biggest Mistake appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

]]>
https://wealthyretirement.com/trends/warren-buffett-mistake-not-investing-technology-sector/feed/ 0
How to Avoid Being Ripped Off in the Options Market https://wealthyretirement.com/income-opportunities/income-generators-options-trading/avoid-pricing-rip-off-trading-options/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/income-opportunities/income-generators-options-trading/avoid-pricing-rip-off-trading-options/#respond Thu, 31 May 2018 20:30:47 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=15056 Trading options is a lot like buying a car - there's a way to do it without getting cheated.

The post How to Avoid Being Ripped Off in the Options Market appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

]]>
Rip-offs are common everywhere, especially in retail. Try walking away from a car purchase feeling good. You thought you’d read up on everything – you knew the price, the dealer cost, the upgrades, all of it. Yet you still managed to spend more than planned.

The options market is not much different in terms of being ripped off. You’re almost always going to leave money on the table unless you know how the game is played.

When you buy a car, you can either use the tools that the dealer uses or those that the buyer uses.

The buyer likes to quote things like the Kelley Blue Book or Edmunds as sources for determining a fair price for the car he’s about to buy or the trade-in he’s looking to sell.

But the dealer knows better. He doesn’t deal in retail… He deals in wholesale. If he was pricing cars the way the retail market was doing so, he’d be broke. So he uses the Black Book, which values your car at substantially lower prices. And he’s also scanning daily auction results to see how much the cars that don’t sell on the lot will fetch at auctions.

What does this have to do with options?

Well, you want to use the Black Book equivalent for options pricing… while everyone else is using the Blue Book.

Here’s how to do that…

Pull up a stock quote for any company. Then click on the tab for options, which is usually on the same page as the stock quote.

You will pull up what is known as an “options chain,” which shows all the puts, calls and pricing for that stock. Click on an option.

Tip: This exercise works best with a relatively well-known company that has some trading volume. You can figure out the trading volume by looking at the number in the “Open Interest” column. That reflects how many options contracts are still outstanding or owned (or shorted) by individuals or institutions.

Now look at the bid and offer price. If you want to sell an option, you will use the bid price as a guide or sell somewhere between the bid and offer. If you want to buy, you would use the offer price.

Now click on this link. You’ll see a bunch of columns. Each one asks you for an input number. It looks like this:

All the numbers are readily available from your stock or options quote.

Use “3” for the interest rate (risk-free rate of return) to reflect the 3% yield on 10-year Treasurys. The number for volatility is usually found under the heading “Volatility,” “Implied Volatility” or “Beta” in your quote.

And don’t worry about rounding or graph increment. Pop the numbers in and it will spit out what the put or call option is worth.

Compare the two and that’s where you’ll find out whether you’re getting the “dealer price” (the wholesale price) or the “customer price” (the retail price).

In any market, the winning investor increases their odds at every turn… which you just did. And now you are armed with information that even the majority of options traders don’t have.

Good investing,

Karim

The post How to Avoid Being Ripped Off in the Options Market appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

]]>
https://wealthyretirement.com/income-opportunities/income-generators-options-trading/avoid-pricing-rip-off-trading-options/feed/ 0
The Hottest Sectors… and Why You Shouldn’t Care About Them https://wealthyretirement.com/trends/hot-market-trends-investing-healthcare-stocks-biotech-sector/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/trends/hot-market-trends-investing-healthcare-stocks-biotech-sector/#respond Mon, 30 Apr 2018 20:30:41 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=14691 Everyone wants to be in on the latest “trendy” investment opportunity. But there’s a less sexy sector that is just as profitable.

The post The Hottest Sectors… and Why You Shouldn’t Care About Them appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

]]>
At a recent conference, the subject of what’s “hot” in the industry was brought up.

“Crypto,” said one expert.

“Pot stocks,” claimed another.

Penny stocks,” declared a third.

“Everyone wants trading systems,” stated an authority.

Another guru advised, “Income always sells.”

So with that, I’m happy to introduce you to Marc Lichtenfeld’s Crypto Penny Pot Stock Income System Trader.

I’m joking, of course. Though I bet it would sell.

A much less sexy area of the market that is harder to sell but where investors routinely make great money is the healthcare space.

For speculative investors, there are small stocks – especially in the biotech sector – that have the potential of doubling overnight and going up hundreds of percentage points in a few months or years.

For more conservative investors, there are a number of high-quality companies that not only will provide great growth opportunities but will generate a meaningful amount of income as well.

For example, one of my favorite healthcare stocks is the big pharmaceutical maker AbbVie (NYSE: ABBV).

On March 6, 2017, when I recommended it, the price was $63.22. At the same time, for investors who really wanted to go for big gains, I suggested the AbbVie January $75 calls at $1.18.

We exited the stock on February 1, 2018, at a price of $112.44, for a total return (including dividends) of 81%.

The options play was even bigger. When we sold that position on January 19, 2018, the calls were trading at $29.28, another huge gain.

But I also recommended the stock for long-term investors.

That’s because when I suggested buying the stock at about $57, it was yielding 3.8%. Importantly, the company has raised its dividend seven times since it began paying one in 2013. Because of the dividend raises, AbbVie now yields a very strong 6.7% on our original price and 3.9% on its current price.

AbbVie has an impressive set of products, including cancer blockbuster Imbruvica, which many people expect to eventually generate up to $7 billion a year in revenue.

Additionally, it has a pipeline of 30 drugs that should create plenty of cash flow and fund not only growth but dividend increases as well.

There are many high-quality healthcare companies that reward shareholders with both dividend income and growth potential.

The table below shows the expected earnings growth rates and current dividend yields of five great healthcare companies.

Getting in on a hot new trend can certainly make you money if you’re early enough. But rather than trying to time new trends and hoping to get it right, I prefer sticking with what has worked for decades.

Healthcare stocks have a long history of providing growth and, in many cases, income. There will always be demand for healthcare products and services.

I’m not sure I can say the same for the Crypto Penny Pot Stock Income System Trader.

Good investing,

Marc

The post The Hottest Sectors… and Why You Shouldn’t Care About Them appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

]]>
https://wealthyretirement.com/trends/hot-market-trends-investing-healthcare-stocks-biotech-sector/feed/ 0
What’s Causing the Equities Gap Between Boomers and Millennials? https://wealthyretirement.com/retirement-planning/market-sell-off-between-risk-averse-boomers-in-retirement-and-conservative-millennials/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/retirement-planning/market-sell-off-between-risk-averse-boomers-in-retirement-and-conservative-millennials/#respond Tue, 24 Apr 2018 20:30:27 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=14635 As the number of older Americans increases, the shift from stocks to low-risk holdings is expected to accelerate.

The post What’s Causing the Equities Gap Between Boomers and Millennials? appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

]]>
Depending on whom you talk to, there may or may not be a disturbing trend developing in the market. And, as seems to be the case in almost everything lately, it involves the boomers and the millennials.

Put simply, when boomers enter – or approach – retirement, they sell their stocks for lower-risk holdings. But the millennials aren’t investing enough in equities to pick up the slack.

Millennials seem to have been traumatized by the collapse of the stock market in 2008 and early 2009. So much so that 85% of those polled describe themselves as conservative investors, and 52% say they’re ultra-conservative with their money.

The result is more selling than buying, which is called a sell-off. And as the bulk of boomers move to the “no more paychecks” side of life, the shift from stocks to low-risk holdings is expected to accelerate. That could be a problem for the market.

It’s a new depression mentality.

The result is that since 2007, $300 billion has come out of stock funds and $1.5 trillion has flowed into fixed-income investments. And the trend hasn’t even hit its stride yet.

In 2016, half of all stocks were owned by people between the ages of 45 and 64. If this shift to fixed income continues, there’s a lot more money to come out of equities.

But as I said, this is not an open-and-shut case. There’s another side to this boomer-millennial equities gap.

Numbers from the Government Accountability Office show that between 1948 and 2004, less than 6% of market return variability was due to demographics.

That indicates that the shift from stocks to bonds will be gradual. The market should have time to adapt.

But the sell-off side argues that during most of the period from 1946 to 2004, we were functioning in a defined benefit retirement system with pensions. The average guy didn’t own stocks. There wasn’t any big selling by a significant part of the population.

In today’s retirement market, it’s a different ballgame. Stock funds dominate our defined contribution system – IRAs and 401(k)s – during our accumulation period. Then, as we get older, it all has to be converted to more risk-averse investments.

My recommendation is that the percentage of your portfolio that you own in lower-risk holdings, like bonds, should equal your age. The older you get, the higher that percentage becomes.

Whether the money comes out of equities slowly or quickly, the point is that it is coming out and will continue to do so for at least 10 more years.

If the reality of the time value of money sinks in with millennials, they could come out of their money stupor and could start buying stocks.

But, as I have said many times, we can’t bank on “coulds,” “woulds” or “shoulds.” Once we hit retirement, it has to be “is” and “must.”

Good investing,

Steve

The post What’s Causing the Equities Gap Between Boomers and Millennials? appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

]]>
https://wealthyretirement.com/retirement-planning/market-sell-off-between-risk-averse-boomers-in-retirement-and-conservative-millennials/feed/ 0
An Easy Cheat Sheet for Understanding Market Volatility https://wealthyretirement.com/retirement-planning/understand-vix-and-market-volatility-to-protect-portfolio/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/retirement-planning/understand-vix-and-market-volatility-to-protect-portfolio/#respond Thu, 19 Apr 2018 20:30:25 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=14573 Get your notepad ready... Here’s how to “play” the VIX easily.

The post An Easy Cheat Sheet for Understanding Market Volatility appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

]]>
Volatility hasn’t been of much concern for the past five years.

As you can see below, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was tame heading into January.

It was almost too tame…

That isn’t normal!

The VIX measures market volatility by gauging how many put and call options are being bought and sold on stocks in the S&P 500.

Many believe the VIX is a leading indicator… It isn’t.

The VIX is a lagging indicator. It reacts to what is happening in the market… It doesn’t cause things to happen in the market.

But once it rears its head, people begin to use it as a real-time measure of what is going on. That can be effective in the short term, as it is a direct and accurate reflection of the market.

I use the VIX all the time. It is one of the many indicators that allow me to gauge the direction of the market, how fast it’s moving, and how much panic or complacency exists.

And I do know one thing for sure: Complacency can last for a long time. Panic does not.

Get out a notepad and write this down: The sweet spot for the VIX is its historical range, between 15 and 25.

It’s not normal for the VIX to trade below 15 and stay there. The lower it trades, the less normal it is. A reading between 9 and 15 reflects market complacency; it’s a warning sign if it stays there too long.

And if the VIX drops below 9, you should be looking over your shoulder. In the fourth quarter of last year, the VIX traded below 10. A reading that low (or below 9) should really scare the heck out of you. It means investors are a little too relaxed.

In these situations, you should lighten up on stocks. Instead, you should buy puts. That’s because when volatility is low, options are cheaper. As volatillity increases, stock prices will nose-dive and you’ll be able to profit from the market drop.

Back to that notepad… When the VIX is trading above 25, the market is experiencing above-normal volatility. This is when you should start dipping back into the market. It’s also when you should sell options to collect higher premiums.

When the VIX is above 30, we are entering a mini correction. Start buying more stocks and selling more puts. (Just for some perspective, the VIX was trading above 30 during the recent mini correction in February.)

When the VIX moves above 40 – a very rare occurrence – it’s time to accelerate your purchasing.

Finally, when the VIX goes above 50 or 60, it’s time to take out a second mortgage and go all in! The VIX has jumped to levels above 70 just once – during the lows of the 2008 and 2009 correction.

If you were buying then, you would have increased your wealth severalfold in the years ahead. Even putting your money into an index fund would have made you four to five times your initial investment.

Now that you know what levels to look for, how do you “play” the VIX easily?

There are several exchange-traded funds and options that give you exposure.

My favorite is the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE: VXX). This is an exchange-traded note (ETN) that should be used for only short-term trading or protection during volatile periods. It is NOT meant to be a long-term holding.

When the VIX starts moving above 15, you can buy shares of this ETN. It will begin to move higher as the market goes lower. At the beginning of the most recent correction in mid-January, the Short-Term Futures ETN was trading as low as $25.50. By the peak of the correction, it was trading above $55.

Since this is a short-term fund, you need to treat it as you would an option. Remember, the time to start selling is when the VIX moves above 30. You should be all out by the time the VIX jumps above 40.

Shares of the Short-Term Futures ETN are easy to trade on any exchange and through any broker. Because the ETN uses futures on the VIX, it will lose value over time as result of “leakage,” meaning new futures must be bought and old futures near expiration must be sold. Therefore, you should never buy this for longer-term protection.

For that, you should buy a longer-term security, which I will share with you next week.

Good investing,

Karim

The post An Easy Cheat Sheet for Understanding Market Volatility appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

]]>
https://wealthyretirement.com/retirement-planning/understand-vix-and-market-volatility-to-protect-portfolio/feed/ 0
Don’t Get Emotional When Investing in Healthcare https://wealthyretirement.com/trends/take-emotion-out-of-investing-in-healthcare-and-biotech/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/trends/take-emotion-out-of-investing-in-healthcare-and-biotech/#respond Mon, 16 Apr 2018 20:30:28 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=14334 Even if you think a company is saving lives or developing the next great drug, make sure you protect yourself and think rationally.

The post Don’t Get Emotional When Investing in Healthcare appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

]]>
The healthcare sector is my favorite sector to invest in, both long and short term.

Long term, demographics practically ensure that the sector will remain healthy (pun intended) for years to come. Ten-thousand baby boomers turn 65 every day. A few decades from now, when the baby boomer population has dwindled, the next large population group (millennials) will be middle-aged.

Short term, few sectors have the ability to produce such strong gains as healthcare, particularly small cap biotechs. But with these types of companies, it’s easy to break one of investing’s cardinal rules: Don’t fall in love with a stock.

My brother works in the movie industry. Sometimes he’s under a lot of pressure. When he feels stressed, he reminds himself, “You’re either curing cancer or you’re not curing cancer.” In other words, people won’t die if his project isn’t successful.

When you invest in small cap biotech stocks, you’re often investing in companies that are trying to cure cancer or diabetes, or a rare but fatal disease. The work that these companies do is important.

If you buy shares of a stock like Target (NYSE: TGT), of course you want the company to prosper. And if Target’s sales are strong, it will employ more people and help grow the economy. All good things. But let’s face it, you probably don’t get that excited about the same-store sales report each month.

But when you invest in a small biotech, it’s different. It’s easy to become emotionally attached.

For example, consider a company like TG Therapeutics (Nasdaq: TGTX), which is developing therapies for treating leukemia. You want the company to succeed, not only for your own monetary gain but because of the impact it could have on tens of thousands of lives.

If things go wrong with some of these companies, like when their drug is rejected by the FDA or their clinical trial data is weak, investors often make excuses and justify why they should stay in the stock, even if they have a large loss and the medical studies say the drug clearly doesn’t work.

And when things go right, they can go right in a hurry.

Portola Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: PTLA) is a great example of the big swings that biotech stocks can experience.

The company makes drugs to treat blood clots and other blood conditions.

On June 22 of last year, Portola’s stock closed at $38.25. The next day, after announcing the FDA approval of its anticoagulant Bevyxxa, the stock spiked 63% and closed at $56.06. It eventually reached a high of $67.10 a few weeks later. Today, the stock trades in the low 30s, half of where it was less than a year ago.

Investors who were able to ride the stock to its new high should have checked their emotions at the door and set a trailing stop.

I recommend a 25% trailing stop on most stocks. That means that as the stock goes higher, you adjust your stop higher. When Portola hit its high at $67.10, an investor who set a 25% trailing stop would have gotten out at $50.33, saving himself about 18 points from where it’s trading today.

It would have been easy to get caught up in the emotion of rooting for AndexXa, Portola’s developmental antidote for anticoagulants when emergency surgery is required. Without it, patients on blood thinners can bleed to death while on the operating table. There are few remedies that doctors can use in this situation, so AndexXa would save about 2,000 lives per month. It makes sense to root for a product that can be beneficial to so many people.

But setting a stop at 25% below the high would have taken the emotion out of the trade and forced the sale of the stock at $50.33. Even if the investor was very hopeful that AndexXa was going to save lives and be the next big thing in medicine, the stop would have taken him out of the position and saved him a lot of pain when Portola made a round trip back to the low $30s.

Using a stop removes the emotion from investing, which is always important, but especially when investing in an emotional sector like biotech.

Good investing,

Marc

The post Don’t Get Emotional When Investing in Healthcare appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

]]>
https://wealthyretirement.com/trends/take-emotion-out-of-investing-in-healthcare-and-biotech/feed/ 0
3 Questions to Ask Before the Next Bear Market https://wealthyretirement.com/trends/market-trends-3-questions-to-ask-before-the-next-bear-market/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/trends/market-trends-3-questions-to-ask-before-the-next-bear-market/#respond Mon, 29 Jan 2018 21:30:26 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=13498 Having a plan in advance of a bear market will make it much easier to withstand when it finally arrives.

The post 3 Questions to Ask Before the Next Bear Market appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

]]>
A friend of mine is very wealthy. Yet every time the market shimmies, he asks me if he should get out.

“It depends on your tolerance for risk,” I explain to him. I walk him through a series of questions to help him figure out whether he is comfortable staying in the market.

The stock market is at all-time highs. Investors’ bullish sentiment is at seven-year highs, which makes me think that many investors are not ready to handle a downturn or a full-blown bear market.

Please note, I’m not predicting one. I’m just saying that eventually a bear market will occur (great prediction, Nostradamus). But should there be a sell-off in the near future, it could be ugly, as investors are ill-prepared to handle the pain that the market doles out from time to time. After nine years of higher prices seemingly every day, I’m concerned we’ve forgotten how to weather a market that is going down.

These three questions will help you deal with the next bear market.

  1. When do you need the money that’s invested in the market?

If you don’t need the money that’s invested in stocks for another 10 years, then a bear market – even a nasty one – shouldn’t be much of a concern. It won’t be fun, but the stock market almost always goes up over a 10-year period. In fact, the only times you would have lost money over 10 years would have been if you had sold during the height of the Great Depression or Great Recession. Even if you had bought at the highs in 2007, right before the 2008 financial collapse, and held for 10 years, you would have made money.

But if you need the funds that are invested in stocks within the next three years, take them out now…

Not because we’re at all-time highs or because I’m worried about a bear market… but because you can’t afford to be exposed to short-term risk. Anything can happen in the market over three years. And knowing that an important deadline – such as a tuition bill – is coming up while the market is falling will make you crazy. You’ll likely end up selling at the bottom when the panic sets in.

So sell your stocks if you need the capital within three years.

  1. Do you have trailing stops?

Trailing stops will protect your gains and capital if things go wrong in the market.

The best aspect of a trailing stop is that it removes emotion from your decision to sell.

It’s so easy to freeze up – to ignore your own rules – when the market tanks. “The stock was just at $50. Now it’s at $47. If it gets back to $50, I’ll sell it,” you say to yourself. And then $47 becomes $45, which becomes $40…

Trading with emotion is dangerous and can cost you a lot of money.

I recommend 25% trailing stops. So if a stock is trading at $100, your stop would be $75. If the stock rises to $110, your stop climbs to $82.50.

A stop will protect your profits in a rising market and will keep your losses small during a correction or bear market. The key is to honor your stop and not remove it when the stock starts getting close to the stop price.

If you use a trailing stop, you’ll get out when things start getting messy and have plenty of capital to put back into the market when you’re ready.

  1. Can you handle a downturn emotionally?

Answer this question honestly. There’s nothing wrong with saying that a sell-off in the market scares the bejeezus out of you.

If that’s the case and the answers to the first two questions don’t provide comfort, take your profits now and invest in something much safer like Treasurys, CDs, etc. You won’t get nearly the same return over the long term as you will in the stock market, but you’ll have much less stress – and that’s important.

Stress about financial matters breaks up marriages, causes health problems and is miserable to live through. We’ve all been there.

So if knowing that your time horizon is long enough to make back potential losses and that trailing stops will protect your capital aren’t enough to keep you calm, don’t expose yourself to the market or that stress.

Having a plan in advance of a bear market will make it much easier to withstand when it finally arrives.

Good investing,

Marc

The post 3 Questions to Ask Before the Next Bear Market appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

]]>
https://wealthyretirement.com/trends/market-trends-3-questions-to-ask-before-the-next-bear-market/feed/ 0