tariffs Archives - Wealthy Retirement https://wealthyretirement.com/tag/tariffs/ Retire Rich... Retire Early. Thu, 18 Dec 2025 21:19:59 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8.3 The Big Inflation Beater https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/the-big-inflation-beater/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/the-big-inflation-beater/#comments Sat, 20 Dec 2025 16:30:42 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=34549 This data may surprise you...

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Inflation may have slowed down, but no one is celebrating. At 2.7%, it remains well above the Fed’s 2% target.

And with more interest rate cuts likely coming and higher tariffs still on the table, I expect inflation to accelerate.

Fortunately, there’s an asset class that has absolutely crushed inflation every decade for nearly a century. And I bet you’ll be surprised when you find out what it is.

It is not gold.

Gold has kept up with inflation over the very long term, but that’s about it. An ounce of gold essentially buys the same amount of goods and services today as it did a millennium or two ago.

The big inflation beater is small cap stocks.

Chart: Small Cap Stock Returns vs. Inflation

You can see from the chart above that small caps strongly outpaced inflation in every decade. The smallest margin was 4.7% in the 1980s.

On average, small caps returned 13% annually, while inflation averaged 3.2% – meaning small caps increased an investor’s buying power by an astounding 10% per year.

That doesn’t just mean you could have had 10% more money each year. It means you could have bought 10% more goods and services each year – no matter how high prices rose during that year.

To make it clear just how profound this is, let me give you an example. Let’s say you’re a golfer and the average round of golf costs you $100. You have a budget of $1,000 per year for golf (not including equipment). That means you can play 10 times per year.

Now imagine that, due to inflation, a round of golf will cost you $105 next year. If your budget doesn’t increase, you’re down to playing nine times per year. And in a few years, if inflation remains constant, that will decline to eight times.

But now suppose that you added the average yearly return (13%) that small caps have delivered to your golf budget, increasing it from $1,000 to $1,130. Not only would you be able to afford the annual bump in greens fees, but you’d also be able to increase the number of times you can hit the links to 11 per year. You’d be able to play 12 times the following year… and so on.

Small caps get a bad rap. Many investors think they’re super risky. And certain ones are. There are plenty of garbage companies out there.

But as an asset class, small caps have a fantastic track record that goes back decades. And surprisingly, they help investors increase their buying power even during periods of high inflation.

Going forward, it will be important to have small caps in your portfolio. With large caps trading at historically high valuations (and with more rate cuts by the Fed on the horizon), they are likely to be the top performers in the near term.

Many people think of small caps as speculative investments. But they have proven over nearly 100 years to play a vital role in allowing investors to beat inflation and increase their buying power.

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3 Reasons Small Caps Could Steal the Show https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/3-reasons-small-caps-could-steal-the-show/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/3-reasons-small-caps-could-steal-the-show/#comments Sat, 19 Jul 2025 15:30:40 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=34046 The stars are aligning for some serious small cap outperformance...

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Are small cap stocks about to have their moment?

It seems that may be the case…

Considering large caps, as measured by the S&P 500, have done the heavy lifting of the current stock market rally.

And the Magnificent Seven – a group of seven megacap technology growth stocks associated with artificial intelligence – have led the way. Because the S&P 500 is a weighted index, companies with the largest market caps have a bigger impact on it. And all of the Magnificent Seven stocks are among the 11 largest firms in the world.

But the Magnificent Seven’s recent run – as a group, they’re up 230% since the October 2022 beginning of the current bull market – has also made them very expensive.

The forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of the Magnificent Seven now stands at 28.6. That’s far higher than the S&P 500’s P/E (22.2) and nearly double that of the S&P SmallCap 600 Index (just 15.6).

And now, several challenges that have held small cap companies back are receding. So there are suddenly new opportunities in the small cap space.

Rate Cuts Coming

Small companies have suffered from higher borrowing costs since the Federal Reserve started hiking rates in early 2022 in response to spiking inflation.

These companies tend to have less in the way of profits, so they rely more heavily on credit to fund their operations. And credit has been expensive the last few years.

But relief is likely on the way. It looks increasingly likely that the Fed will begin reducing rates later this year.

Futures traders are now pricing in at least two quarter-point rate cuts by the end of the year, and possibly three.

And historically, small caps have benefited the most during interest rate easing cycles.

Since 1954, small cap stocks gained on average 14.2% after the first Fed cut, while large caps gained 9.4%. And a year after the first cut, small caps gained nearly 27% while large caps rose about 16%. An 11-percentage-point outperformance is pretty significant for any asset class.

Lower Taxes

The recently-passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act extends the corporate tax cuts enacted during President Donald Trump’s first term.

That’s more good news for smaller businesses, which tend to pay higher tax rates than their larger brethren due to their revenue composition. They rely more heavily on domestic revenues, which are more directly affected by U.S. corporate tax rates.

Tariffs

Finally, tariffs disadvantage bigger firms, because those businesses get more of their revenue from exports than small firms, which tend to be more domestically focused.

And while the Trump administration is negotiating many of the tariffs down, they will still be higher going forward. This gives small firms a leg up on large caps.

Put higher tariffs, lower taxes, and more affordable borrowing costs together, and the future is looking bright for small businesses and their share prices.

And in fact, we’re already seeing that in our portfolios at The Oxford Club.

The truth is the surge in small cap stocks is already here – if you know where to look.

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How We Turned a Multi-Week Meltdown Into a Buy Opportunity https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/how-we-turned-a-multi-week-meltdown-into-a-buy-opportunity/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/how-we-turned-a-multi-week-meltdown-into-a-buy-opportunity/#comments Sat, 14 Jun 2025 15:30:32 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=33919 We stayed patient... and now we’re reaping the rewards.

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Over the past several years, I’ve told readers repeatedly that market timing – jumping from stocks to cash and then back into stocks – doesn’t work.

Sure, anyone can make a good call occasionally.

But no one gets it right consistently.

That means it’s just a matter of time before market timers end up on the sidelines while the market puts on a furious rally.

The past few months have been a perfect case in point.

Every time President Trump threatened or imposed tariffs, the market would sell off.

And every time he delayed, reduced or negotiated them away, the market would rally.

Just look at the tariff timeline since this year’s inauguration…

On February 1, the Trump administration announced tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China to take effect on February 4.

On February 3, Trump reversed course and delayed tariffs on Mexico and Canada but allowed 10% duties on China to go into effect.

On February 13, the administration unveiled a plan for “reciprocal tariffs” on an array of countries and goods to take effect around April 2.

On February 26, Trump claimed the European Union was formed to “screw the United States” and again threatened the bloc with 25% tariffs.

On March 4, the administration imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% tariff on imports from China.

On March 6, Trump reversed course and excluded an array of goods from Mexico and Canada from the new tariffs. But tariffs on China stayed on.

On April 2, Trump announced “Liberation Day” tariffs of 10% worldwide and additional duties on the “worst offenders.”

On April 11, the administration announced reciprocal tariffs will exclude consumer electronics from most countries but retained a 20% tariff on electronics from China.

On April 23, a dozen U.S. states filed a lawsuit to stop President Trump’s tariffs, arguing they are unlawful because they bypassed Congress.

On April 29, Trump signed executive orders to relax some of his tariffs on automobiles and auto parts.

On May 12, the U.S. and China agreed that for 90 days, the U.S. tariff on Chinese imports would drop from 145% to 30% and the Chinese tariff on U.S. imports would drop from 125% to 10%.

On May 28, the United States Court of International Trade put a temporary pause on Trump’s wide-ranging tariffs, ruling that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not give the president “unbounded” authority to issue worldwide and retaliatory tariffs.

On May 29, an appeals court temporarily paused the order from the United States Court of International Trade, making the fate of Trump’s tariffs uncertain.

Wow. That’s a lot of tariff impositions, delays, reductions, and negotiations.

Now… let me ask you a question. Who predicted all of this?

The answer, of course, is no one.

Who predicted most of this?

Again, no one.

That made timing the market’s plunge and recovery impossible.

Yet Oxford Club Members had the chance to make a boatload of money over this period.

How? By knowing that the worst tariffs were unlikely to last.

As I wrote to our Chairman’s Circle Members on April 7, as the market was melting down…

“I’m fully on board with [Trump’s] plans to extend the 2017 tax cuts, deregulate the economy, boost our energy independence, and cut waste, fraud, and abuse from our bloated government bureaucracy.

But his tariffs are an unforced error…

There is a strong probability that these tariffs will be delayed, reduced, repealed, or negotiated away.

No one can predict how this will play out. Because it all depends on the whims of one man.

But I believe that reason will prevail – and the tariffs will ultimately go away.

It may take days. It may take weeks. But tariffs are a terrible idea when they are permanent.

So, I’m betting they won’t be.

If Trump calls taking the tariffs down a win and claims that was his plan all along, I’m fine with that.

It will also make the recent market dive – in hindsight – look like an overreaction.

That’s why I’m inclined to use this dramatic sell-off as a buying opportunity.”

Trump views the stock market as a barometer of his success as president.

(And you should never underestimate a man who can turn a mug shot into a campaign poster.)

Knowing this, Oxford Club Members had the chance to use the multi-week meltdown to buy over a dozen beaten-up stocks.

Today they are much higher. In fact, one of them is up over 100% in less than two months.

Following “Liberation Day,” equity investors everywhere got whipsawed.

The worst sold in a panic as stocks collapsed.

Average investors sat on their hands and did nothing. (Or made the mistake of waiting for stocks to get even cheaper before committing any fresh money to the market.)

But smart, opportunistic investors took our advice and bought great companies while they were inexpensive.

Now we are reaping the rewards.

Bear in mind, we are not market timers. We had no idea what Trump would do next. We had no idea how quickly the market would recover.

However, we invest according to time-tested principles.

History shows that the smartest thing to do in a market meltdown is to buy quality assets while they are inexpensive.

Yes, you can always wait for stocks to go even lower.

But that’s market timing, and it doesn’t work.

Bottom line? When assets are cheap, don’t get caught stealing in slow motion.

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Trading the Trump “TACO” Effect https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/trading-the-trump-taco-effect/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/trading-the-trump-taco-effect/#respond Sat, 07 Jun 2025 15:30:54 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=33885 Markets are starting to notice a pattern in President Trump’s tariff announcements.

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Editor’s Note: Monument Traders Alliance’s Bryan Bottarelli is a master at trading volatility – and lately, President Trump has been a master at creating it.

Below, Bryan explains how markets are noticing a pattern in Trump’s policies… and how traders can use it to their advantage.

For more insights from Bryan and the MTA team, check out their website.

– James Ogletree, Managing Editor


Donald Trump’s erratic behavior on tariffs has caused wild fluctuations in the markets over the last 3 months.

Now as we cross the 6-months point of his second term, a familiar pattern is starting to form.

Trump recently announced a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1. Only to walk it back after he received a “very nice call” from European Union President Ursula von der Leyen, which quickly repaired the Nasdaq’s 1.5% drop.

He also dropped his 145% tariff on China to 30% last month, which again sent stocks surging.

This has been the pattern with Trump so far.

Despite his threats, he’s never followed through on his most bombastic tariffs. He prefers to announce them and then pause them.

It’s leading to what traders are calling the TACO effect.

It stands for… “Trump Always Chickens Out.”

See the chart below.

Chart: Trump's Tariff Pauses Effect on the DOW

As you’ll notice above, there have been three “TACO” moments where Trump paused tariffs over the last few months.

Each time the pause is announced, the markets go back up.

You’ll also notice the pauses haven’t had as abrupt an effect recently as they have had back in March.

Once Trump makes the announcement for tariffs, I’ve been looking to overreactions.

So far, this has been a winning proposition. A few weeks ago I closed 3 trades for winners for a 100% win-rate, including a 16% winner on DECK in 1 trading day.

I understand these short-term fluctuations can be stressful as a trader, but the truth is… you can work overreactions in your favor if you know where to look. I do this in The War Room every day.

Trump’s Other Big Promise on Oil

Aside from tariffs, one of the other things Trump’s promised is we’d make a crap ton of money in the oil business.

He also promised a crap ton of money in the steel business.

Even if you don’t like Trump, we want him to succeed in this way.

Right now, the price of oil is around $64 a barrel. No oil stock is going to moon as long as oil prices are down.

However, as my colleague Karim likes to say, one of the best things for low oil prices is actually low oil prices.

Low oil prices force the marginal producers out of business. So long-term oil plays in companies that stand to survive any market storms could be the move.

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Shock and Awe: The Next Stage of Trump’s Master Plan https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/shock-and-awe-the-next-stage-of-trumps-master-plan/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/shock-and-awe-the-next-stage-of-trumps-master-plan/#comments Tue, 27 May 2025 20:30:43 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=33837 Stay tuned... because the next shock might be a boom.

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Editor’s Note: On May 3, Manward Press Chief Investment Strategist Shah Gilani discussed President Trump’s “Master Plan,” saying, “Each major selloff triggered by tough trade talk has been followed by a walk-back. A delay. A clarification. A carve-out. This isn’t a coincidence – it’s a strategy.”

Just nine days later, Trump announced that the U.S. and China had reached an agreement to pause tariffs for 90 days, sending markets soaring.

Now, Shah says, the second half of Trump’s Master Plan is beginning to unfold.

He shares more details below…

– James Ogletree, Managing Editor


You didn’t need a crystal ball to see this coming… just the ability to look past the headlines and understand how power, perception, and markets collide.

That’s exactly what I’ve been discussing in my e-letter Total Wealth, and with my thousands of newsletter subscribers.

As the media complained and markets panicked, we saw what was really happening…

President Trump was executing a tactical maneuver: economic “shock and awe.”

His draconian tariff announcement campaign slammed markets, jolted trading partners, and sent the global elite scrambling.

As I’ve been saying, it was all part of the Master Plan.

Now, with the S&P 500 less than 5% from its all-time high, the strategy is clear. The setup worked. The trap was sprung. The market took the bait.

And those who kept their heads and understood the strategy loaded up at the bottom and have been riding the wave back up.

Here’s how we did it…

The Draconian Shock

President Trump unleashed punishing tariffs:

  • Auto tariffs
  • A flat 10% on all imports
  • The April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs that shook markets to their core

The reaction was jarring.

Indexes plummeted. Traders panicked. Commentators lost their minds. “Trade war!” they screamed. “Global recession!” they warned.

But while Wall Street spun out of control, we didn’t flinch.

This wasn’t about chaos – it was about control.

Trump’s tariff campaign came straight from the military playbook: shock and awe. Rattle markets. Send a message. Force adversaries to the table. It was an aggressive front designed to gain negotiating leverage.

The brilliance of the plan? He always had the kill switch in his pocket. If markets dropped too far, he’d walk it back. Soften the tone. Announce exemptions. Delay implementation.

That’s exactly what he did. Again and again.

Each time markets approached the danger zone – down double digits, flirting with correction territory, then bear market levels – Trump shifted gears.

He made an announcement. Floated a concession. Offered “consideration.”

And the markets? They rallied like prisoners freed from captivity.

This was chess. While others played checkers, we watched the board five moves ahead.

The Parallel Track: Let the Market Run

Here we are. The market hasn’t just recovered – it’s reapproaching euphoria. The S&P 500 sits within a breath of all-time highs. The Nasdaq has surged. Risk appetite has returned.

This isn’t merely a rebound. It’s the other half of the Plan unfolding.

Trump’s strategy ran on two tracks: First, use fear to force action. Then, when control is reestablished, pivot toward prosperity.

That pivot is underway.

You’re already seeing the shift. U.S. trade representatives meet behind closed doors. Chinese officials discuss “progress.” European partners show more openness to restructuring deals. And the President lays groundwork for new announcements.

Only this time, headlines won’t read “tariffs imposed.” They’ll say “investment announced,” “deal reached,” “manufacturing returning.”

That’s not just diplomacy – that’s jet fuel for the American economy.

Capital flows already reflect this shift. Foreign investment into U.S. infrastructure, technology, and advanced manufacturing accelerates. As confidence in America’s regulatory and tax environment solidifies, expect even more overseas cash to flood back to our shores.

This strengthens the dollar, which we bet on, of course. It strengthens American jobs. It strengthens America.

How We Played It – And Why We’re Not Done Yet

While the crowd screamed “sell,” I had my subscribers buy. Not blindly – strategically.

We didn’t go all-in when the VIX spiked. We staged our entries. We bought the dips in Apple, Amazon, NVIDIA, Microsoft, and other strong companies – names with fortress balance sheets and domestic as well as global dominance. We didn’t bet on hope. We bet on inevitability.

We knew the president had no intention of letting markets spiral out of control. Not with so much at stake. And we knew he held the levers to engineer a rally when the time came.

So we kept dry powder, added to positions on weakness, and now sit on sizable gains – and they’re growing.

Here’s the thing: we’re not done.

If you think the rally’s over just because stocks are near all-time highs, think again.

This next phase – the investment boom, trade renegotiations, the “America First” capital reinvestment wave – is just beginning. As the dollar strengthens, inflation stays subdued, and productivity rises, the backdrop for equities becomes even more compelling.

The Market Was the Weapon

President Trump didn’t attack the market. He weaponized it.

He knew markets could bring adversaries to their knees – then lift America back up when the dust settled. That’s exactly what’s happening.

This was never about reckless policy. It was about leverage. About resetting the terms of global engagement.

Now, with stocks soaring, growth reaccelerating, and global players scrambling to invest in the U.S., the next chapter of the Master Plan unfolds.

If you understood it from the beginning – if you read between the lines and kept faith in America’s strength – then you’re sitting pretty.

We saw it. We believed it. We acted.

Stay smart. Stay tactical. Stay tuned.

Because the next shock… might be a boom.

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Is Extreme Fear Setting Up a Historic Rally? https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/is-extreme-fear-setting-up-a-historic-rally/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/is-extreme-fear-setting-up-a-historic-rally/#comments Sat, 17 May 2025 15:30:44 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=33810 Record levels of bearish sentiment could be foreshadowing “Trump Squeeze 2.0.”

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Editor’s Note: Our friends at Monument Traders Alliance recently made an exciting announcement: They’ve welcomed longtime market analyst JC Parets to their team as their newest contributor!

JC is extremely plugged in to how government policies shape markets. Below, he discusses why the record-setting bearish sentiment we’ve seen lately could be setting up a historic rally.

– James Ogletree, Managing Editor


Sentiment is exponentially worse than it was back in 2016.

So, what does that mean for investors?

The upside is even greater!

It’s deja vu all over again, to quote the great philosopher Yogi Berra.

We’ve seen this before…

Chart: Trump Squeeze

Back in the fall of 2016, sentiment was terrible.

So many people just assumed that a Trump presidency would lead to a stock market collapse and volatility spike.

Instead, 2017 was one of the greatest and least volatile years for the stock market in American History.

And it’s playing out in a similar way this time.

What’s the Trump Trade?

We look for divergences between what is actually happening and what investors think is happening.

The discrepancy between the two is currently at one of the most extreme levels in stock market history.

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) just reported this week that over half their members are bearish U.S. stocks over the next six months.

Chart: What Direction Do All Members Feel The Stock Market Will Be In The Next 6 Months?

This is now the 11th straight week where more than half their members are bearish.

That’s never happened ever in history, and this data goes all the way back to the 1980s.

You can track the weekly reports of individual investor sentiment here at AAII.

Keep in mind that during Trump Squeeze 1.0 you had epic returns for the Nasdaq-100, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Those indexes rallied 46%, 33%, and 32%, respectively.

But, for the most part, the United States underperformed during that cycle. It was the international markets that really shined.

And the U.S. Dollar was falling.

Sound familiar?

I think Trump Squeeze 2.0 has already begun.

You’re seeing the rotation back into small-caps, and now even the large-cap U.S. growth is making a comeback.

Technology was the best performing sector last month.

And, when you look at the stocks that the Trump haters dislike the most – names such as Tesla (TSLA), for example – are ripping higher, up over 34% during the past month.

Remember that our TSLA call options literally doubled less than 10 hours after we put them on.

And don’t forget what helped inspire our entry point and why we’re making so much money in the electric vehicle manufacturer run by Elon Musk.

“Tampon Tim,” as he’s known in many circles, justifiably or not, is a former vice-presidential candidate who regularly brags about how broke he is and how he doesn’t own any stocks.

But he took the stage at a rally to describe how giddy it makes him to download a stock market app and watch the price of Tesla stock fall.

If that creepy dude giggling on stage about things he can’t afford isn’t a sign of a bottom, then you’re just not paying attention.

It was crystal clear. We’re profiting tremendously for embracing the sentiment.

And it’s a great reminder to us all to pay attention. Always pay attention.

The signs are there, regardless of your political affiliation.

Keep in mind, this isn’t about politics. It doesn’t matter who you voted for or how you feel about the current administration.

It’s only about making money and taking advantage of the vulnerabilities in the marketplace caused by irrational human behavior.

And humans tend to act even more irrational than usual when politics are involved.

We know this. We have the data.

So, we try our best to profit from it when we can.

What’s the Trump Squeeze 2.0 trade?

I believe it’s more of the same.

I still think Tesla has the potential to be the most valuable company in the world during the current administration.

Crypto is ripping. The communists holding back America’s position in the fast-growing crypto market have been fired.

A crypto-friendly administration has taken over and you’re seeing that reflected in the price action.

Here is the total crypto market capitalization pushing up against the highest levels ever:

Chart: Total Crypto Market-cap

“Total crypto market cap” is a calculation of the value of every crypto currency in the world added up.

As you can see on the right, Bitcoin (BTC) just crossed back above the $2 trillion market.

Ethereum (ETH) is pushing $300 billion, and some of the larger altcoins are increasing in value by the day.

Right now the total crypto market cap is over $3.2 trillion.

For perspective, it peaked at $3 trillion back in late 2021.

During the prior cycle, total crypto market cap peaked at just over $700 billion in January 2018.

If this cycle does what it did the last cycle, you’re looking at a total crypto market cap north of $10 trillion.

At the current rate, that would put Bitcoin somewhere in the neighborhood of $6 trillion, more than a 3X of current levels.

That’s a $300,000 price tag on a single Bitcoin, this cycle.

And that’s putting it conservatively.

Look out.

This Trump Squeeze 2.0 is just getting started.

This could be one for the record books.

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Why Market Volatility Can Be Your Best Friend  https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/why-market-volatility-can-be-your-best-friend/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/why-market-volatility-can-be-your-best-friend/#respond Sat, 10 May 2025 15:30:28 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=33781 Smart investors use this “fear gauge” to their advantage...

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When the market crashes – or even just pulls back, as we’ve seen lately – a lot of attention is paid to volatility.

Market volatility is the variation of a trading price over time.

The most common way to measure the variation of the price of the broader market is the VIX, which is the CBOE Volatility Index. It measures option prices on the S&P 500.

Volatility is also a tool that you can use to hedge your portfolio or trade for profits.

For example, when volatility – as measured by the VIX – is low, many traders and investors buy calls on the VIX or other volatility instruments as hedges. That way, if volatility spikes (usually causing stock prices to go lower), those who own calls can offset losses in their stock portfolios or profit in a short-term trade.

The VIX is a sentiment indicator. When it’s high, investors are fearful. When it’s low, they’re complacent.

When the market fell last month, the VIX soared to its highest level since the start of the pandemic. An astute investor might’ve seen that as a sign of panic and that the market was likely to stop falling.

In fact, it did. The market is up 13% since April 8, when the VIX peaked and the market bottomed.

Traders who don’t want to deal with company earnings reports, reactive CEO tweets, or analyst upgrades and downgrades can just trade volatility on the indexes.

That way, the only thing that matters is whether volatility goes up or down. It simplifies the trading process, and the trader has to follow only one index.

There are various ways to trade volatility. You can trade options on the VIX or use a variety of ETFs that are based on the VIX. Some are leveraged and move more or less than the VIX in some specific proportion, like 1.5 times. There are inverse VIX ETFs that move in the opposite direction of the index too. (You can also trade options on these leveraged and inverse ETFs.)

Another way to capitalize on volatility is by trading options on stocks or other indexes.

When volatility is high, you may want to consider selling options, because high volatility pushes option prices higher. So you could sell puts or calls and capture a significant premium.

When volatility is low, you may look to buy puts or calls, because the options should be cheap.

Right now, volatility is slightly above the historical average, but it has come way down from previous highs. Though the market has been strong for the past month, it makes sense to position yourself for higher volatility in the near term. There are a lot of risks out there, including economic data, lingering uncertainty about tariffs and other policies, and more. I expect volatility to increase again in the near future.

What’s interesting to me about trading volatility is that you’re not trying to predict which way the market will go – you’re trying to predict how investors will behave.

And historically, investor emotions have been somewhat predictable…

Fear is usually the greatest right near bottoms, and confidence is at its highest when the market is also at its high.

You can bet on those widely held emotions and hedge your portfolio or make some big profits without buying a single share of stock. You just need to trade volatility.

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Trump’s Master Plan for the Markets https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/trumps-master-plan-for-the-markets/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/trumps-master-plan-for-the-markets/#comments Sat, 03 May 2025 15:30:35 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=33763 President Trump’s tariff strategy follows a predictable pattern. Here’s how savvy investors can profit from it.

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Editor’s Note: While many people are wondering if the White House is just making up new tariffs and other policies willy-nilly, Manward Press Chief Investment Strategist Shah Gilani says it’s all part of Trump’s Master Plan.

He explains more below…

– James Ogletree, Managing Editor


When markets crack under the weight of White House policy, most investors run for cover.

I don’t.

That’s especially true when a president understands market psychology better than most politicians – and when his endgame is ultimately market-friendly.

Trump has a Master Plan. And if you caught my appearance on Varney & Co. a few weeks ago, you already know my position: buying the tariff-driven dip is not only logical, it’s the smart play.

When Stuart Varney asked me if President Trump would step in to prevent a market collapse, I answered with a simple “yes.”

That’s not based on wishful thinking. It’s based on decades of trading through everything from Black Monday to Brexit to the COVID crash.

The White House Won’t Let Markets Crash

Trump won’t let the market tank this early in his presidency. Not with the 2026 midterms around the corner.

Since March, we’ve seen escalating tariff rhetoric: blanket auto tariffs, then flat 10% on all trading partners, culminating in that April 2nd announcement that sent global equities tumbling.

Traders were caught flat-footed. Volatility spiked. Bond yields cratered.

But look closer at the pattern. Each major selloff triggered by tough trade talk has been followed by a walk-back. A delay. A clarification. A carve-out.

This isn’t a coincidence – it’s a strategy.

Trump views markets as a scoreboard for his leadership. If they collapse, his approval follows, investment dries up, and the media narrative turns against him – especially with 2026 midterms approaching.

Market Leverage: The Real Game

What we’re witnessing is classic negotiation tactics. Trump uses tariffs the way a poker player uses a raise – to apply pressure, gain leverage, and if necessary, strategically retreat.

He never overplays his hand to the point of no return.

That’s why for weeks I’ve been telling subscribers: this isn’t the time to panic – it’s the time to position.

This tariff tantrum is event-driven, not structural. It’s a temporary dislocation with a predictable outcome.

I’ve had my readers initiate one-third positions in world-class companies:

  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Amazon (AMZN)
  • Microsoft (MSFT)
  • Meta Platforms (META)
  • Alphabet (GOOG)
  • Nvidia (NVDA)

These aren’t just great companies – they’re systemically essential to American technological leadership and global economic growth.

Trump may talk tough, but he won’t sacrifice the engines of American prosperity.

We’ve Seen This Movie Before

Let’s not forget: this isn’t Trump’s first rodeo.

In 2018 and 2019, he deployed tariffs against China like missiles, but every time markets wobbled too hard, he changed the tone.

Exemptions were announced…

Deals were teased…

And markets rallied.

This is the Trump Put – a market floor based on the belief that if conditions deteriorate, he’ll act. Whether it’s walking back tariffs, hinting at tax cuts, or jawboning the Fed, he’s done it before, and he’ll do it again.

Because at the end of the day, Trump needs the market. Not just for votes, but for validation that his policies work.

The Smart Money Strategy

Now, I’m not advocating indiscriminate buying. No seasoned investor plays that way.

That’s why I advised my newsletter subscribers to take a measured approach: build one-third of a position now. This gives us exposure to world-class businesses at discounted prices while maintaining dry powder if we retest the lows.

Why one-third? Because the game isn’t over. Trump still needs to show the world he’s not bluffing. He may escalate tariffs just to make his point. If that triggers another leg down, we’ll be ready to add.

Real wealth isn’t built by panic-selling on CNBC headlines. It’s created by understanding the narrative, recognizing the pattern, and positioning before the crowd catches on.

The media will say this market’s direction is uncertain…

That the tariff threat is real…

That we could be headed for recession…

They don’t see Trump’s Master Plan.

It’s a calculated approach: push until markets push back – then provide just enough relief to claim victory.

If you understand this dynamic – and believe Trump won’t sacrifice market strength this early in his presidency – you buy the dip. Scale in. And prepare for the inevitable rebound.

Because when the chaos is orchestrated, so is the recovery.

And if you’re following my playbook, you’ll be ready for both.

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Respond to Market Chaos Like a Champion https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/respond-to-market-chaos-like-a-champion/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/market-trends/respond-to-market-chaos-like-a-champion/#respond Sat, 26 Apr 2025 15:30:32 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=33710 Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld and other financial experts share proven strategies for navigating market volatility.

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Years ago, during a high school golf match, as I was angrily searching for my ball after an errant tee shot, my coach walked up to me to offer some support.

After sharing the typical platitudes – “keep your head in the game,” “stay focused,” etc. – he finished by saying, “The mark of a young man is how he responds to adversity.”

I wish I could tell you that his pep talk spurred me on to a historic performance, culminating in my teammates carrying me off the golf course on their shoulders while chanting my name… but the rest of my round actually ended up being quite forgettable.

And yet, my coach’s words have still stuck with me more than a decade later.

Even though they were meant to encourage an emotionally fragile high schooler with a deeply flawed golf swing, I think they apply just as much to the current market environment.

Being able to stand tall and keep a level head in a turbulent market is never easy… but it’s essential to building wealth.

Luckily, that’s exactly what Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld – along with the rest of our strategists and experts here at The Oxford Club – is helping our Members do.

Beyond his insights in Wealthy Retirement, The Oxford Income Letter, and his VIP services, Marc has also held numerous live sessions with Members in The Oxford Clubroom (our interactive video chat room) over the past few months, easing their nerves with his calm and rational response to the chaos in the market.

Today, I’d like to do something I’ve never done before in Wealthy Retirement: share not one… not two… but THREE of Marc’s recent Clubroom sessions with you.

After the first, DavidLK posted in the Clubroom chat, “Exceptional Clubroom information – Thank you Marc for making me great returns with bonds! I used to trade mostly stocks – now I mostly trade bonds using Marc’s recommendations!”

After the second, AlfredoNV wrote, “Thanks for revisiting why to build a balanced portfolio!”

And after the third, Teelo said, “Thank you Marc and Alex for giving us confidence to stay in the market!”

I hope these videos are helpful, and remember…

The mark of a successful investor is how they respond to adversity.


Marc’s Near-Perfect Investing Strategy

 

Anyone who has a 99.1% success rate in anything ought to be taken very seriously…

And that’s exactly what Marc has accomplished in his Oxford Bond Advantage service. (That’s 113 wins out of 114 recommendations. Not too shabby!)

Recently, Marc and Oxford Club CEO Todd Skousen sat down to discuss Marc’s specific bond criteria, why everyone – yes, everyone – should own bonds, and The Oxford Club’s overall asset allocation model.


The Best Alternatives to Stocks

 

With the market suffering from a seemingly constant barrage of “news grenades,” it’s prudent to consider alternatives to stocks.

In this session, Marc, Todd, and Rich Checkan, the Club’s go-to gold expert, met to chat about bonds, gold, and more.

For anyone wondering whether they should buy bonds or gold right now, Marc says the answer is… both!


Tariff-Driven Opportunities With Alex and Marc

 

Last week, Marc joined Chief Investment Strategist Alexander Green to discuss what’s likely been the biggest topic in America so far in 2025: tariffs.

The two discussed the Trump administration’s approach to tariffs, its effect on the market, and whether stocks are near the bottom or still have more room to fall.

But most importantly, they answered viewers’ questions and explained what investors can do to protect themselves in volatile markets.

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How to Earn 8% or More Outside the Stock Market https://wealthyretirement.com/financial-literacy/how-to-earn-8-percent-or-more-outside-the-stock-market/?source=app https://wealthyretirement.com/financial-literacy/how-to-earn-8-percent-or-more-outside-the-stock-market/#respond Tue, 22 Apr 2025 20:30:57 +0000 https://wealthyretirement.com/?p=33693 Seeking predictable returns in an unpredictable market? Look no further.

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Last week, I discussed two strategies for generating income in this tough market environment. While selling covered calls and naked puts is a conservative strategy, some investors prefer more of a “set it and forget it” approach.

Fortunately, there’s a simple solution.

Bonds.

You may have never invested in a bond, but they’re actually easier to understand than you might think.

When you buy stock, you own a piece of the business. But when you buy a bond, you are a creditor to the business. As anyone who’s ever owned a business knows, creditors get paid before owners. Otherwise, the creditors take your business.

A bond is a contract between a borrower (the company) and a lender (the bondholder). The company must pay bondholders a predetermined amount of interest on specific dates and then pay the loan off in full on the maturity date. No ifs, ands, or buts. There is no wiggle room. If the company does not live up to those obligations, it is in default, and bankruptcy proceedings start.

If a stock falls in price, you have to pray to the investing gods that it will come back up and make you whole.

If a bond falls in price, it doesn’t matter, because the company will pay $1,000 per bond on the bond’s maturity date, no matter what. If it doesn’t, it’s in default.

Bonds are incredibly safe. Investment-grade bonds default at a minuscule rate – way less than 1%. Non-investment-grade bonds, also known as high-yield or junk bonds, default around 4% of the time. However, the overwhelming majority of those defaults are from the lowest-graded bonds, rated CCC or lower. A bond with a grade of B- or higher has a very low chance of default.

Lastly, my favorite feature about bonds is that you know exactly how much you are going to make over a specified period of time. You’ll never have that kind of certainty with a stock.

Here’s what I mean.

Let’s say you buy a bond at a discount for $950. The bond matures in two years and pays a coupon of 5%. The coupon is based on the $1,000 par value, so the bond will pay $50 per year in two installments of $25 each.

Because you bought the bond at $950 instead of $1,000, your yield is 5.3%. Additionally, you’ll earn a $50 capital gain because you bought the bond for $950 and it will mature at $1,000.

In total, you’ll have made $100 in interest and $50 in capital gains for a total return of 15.8%, or 7.9% per year. Even better, you’ll know what that expected gain is before you ever hit the buy button on your broker’s website.

Bonds provide both income and security, with no exposure to the stock market’s volatility.

If the wild swings of the stock market are causing you stress, consider moving some money into individual bonds.

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