In this special “new year” edition of Wealthy Retirement, we’re running a stock through the Safety Net model and The Value Meter… at the same time.

Using these two popular methodologies in tandem – one for dividend safety, the other for valuation – can give us a more complete picture of whether a stock is worth investing in.

Without further ado, here’s the first-ever combined edition of Safety Net and The Value Meter… featuring a company that just made a potentially industry-changing announcement.

Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld

Safety Net

Now that the calendar has turned to 2026, lots of folks are making promises to themselves that they won’t keep. However, one resolution just got much easier.

Losing weight.

GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) drugs have been game changers for patients and the pharmaceutical companies that make them. Now, oral GLP-1 drugs will again move the needle significantly for customers and drugmakers.

Last week, Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) received FDA approval for an oral version of Wegovy, which was previously available by injection only. The change to the company’s financial picture will be momentous.

We won’t have the full 2025 figures until next month, but free cash flow is projected to come in at $7.7 billion, a 28% decline from 2024’s $10.7 billion and 36% below 2023’s total.

However, because of the new approval, free cash flow is expected to jump 34% to $10.3 billion in 2026 and another 27% in 2027 to $13.2 billion.

The sharp decline in 2025’s free cash flow costs Novo Nordisk a couple of points on its dividend safety rating.

Another issue is the payout ratio.

Novo Nordisk is expected to have paid shareholders $7.1 billion in dividends in 2025. If free cash flow slid 28% as projected, the payout ratio would rise to 92%, which is way too high.

This year’s projected $8.1 billion in dividends would lead to a payout ratio of 78% based on the consensus cash flow estimate. That is also too high, but it’s within spitting distance of the 75% threshold for Safety Net. If cash flow is a little higher than expected (or dividends paid is a little lower) in 2026, the payout ratio may come in below the 75% level, and the company would not be penalized.

In 2025, American investors received two semiannual dividends totaling $1.73 per share, which comes out to a 3.3% dividend yield.

In its local currency, the Danish krone, Novo Nordisk has raised its dividend for 31 consecutive years – though American investors may have seen slight reductions because of currency fluctuations.

Due to falling cash flow and a too-high payout ratio, Novo Nordisk’s dividend safety rating is low. But this is an unusual situation with the company’s fortunes about to change dramatically due to oral Wegovy.

Combine that with a three-decade run of annual dividend increases and a likely upgrade this year, and the dividend should be okay despite the poor rating.

Dividend Safety Rating: D

Director of Trading Anthony Summers

The Value Meter

Sometimes the best businesses make only decent stocks – not because the company slips, but because expectations outrun what the cash can reasonably deliver.

That’s the situation with Novo Nordisk today. The business is still excellent. The stock, after a long reset, is finally being treated with more discipline.

The company is the unquestioned global leader in diabetes and obesity treatments. And Ozempic and Wegovy – overnight name brands, it seems – have reshaped how investors think about the company.

For a while, the market assumed that dominance meant inevitability. But recent results remind us that even great businesses have limits.

Over the first nine months of 2025, sales rose 12%, or 15% at constant exchange rates. Operating profit increased 5%, held back by roughly 9 billion kroner (roughly $1.4 billion) in restructuring costs tied to a companywide transformation. Free cash flow came in at 63.9 billion kroner (about $10.1 billion). That’s lower than the previous year, but still substantial.

Capital spending climbed as Novo expanded its manufacturing capacity. That spending isn’t optional. It’s the cost of staying competitive in GLP-1 therapies. Management also narrowed guidance and lowered growth expectations for diabetes and obesity treatments.

Novo trades at an enterprise value-to-net asset value ratio of 8.43, well above the universe average of 3.82. On that metric alone, the stock still looks expensive. The market continues to pay a premium for quality.

Cash flow is what keeps that premium from becoming a problem. Novo generates quarterly free cash flow equal to 11.28% of its net asset value. The universe average is just 1.12%. In plain terms, the company turns its assets into cash about 10 times more efficiently than the typical company. That matters.

Novo is consistent too. While the Safety Net model rewards year-over-year cash flow growth, The Value Meter prioritizes quarter-over-quarter growth. Over the past 12 quarters, the company grew its quarterly free cash flow 54.5% of the time, compared with 46.7% for peers. It also produced positive free cash flow in each of the past 12 quarters.

This isn’t a lucky stretch. It’s a durable pattern.

As we saw above, however, the stock has gone through a humbling year. Shares peaked in mid-2024 and slid through much of 2025.

That move wasn’t driven by collapsing fundamentals. It was driven by disappointment. Investors stopped paying for perfection.

That change is important. Novo is not cheap in absolute terms. You are still paying for elite assets. But you are no longer paying as if nothing can go wrong.

The business earns its valuation. The balance sheet is strong. The cash engine is real. What’s different now is the margin of safety. After the sell-off, it finally exists.

This isn’t a stock for traders chasing excitement. It’s for patient investors who want exposure to a world-class cash producer after expectations have cooled. The upside may be quieter from here, but it no longer depends on flawless execution.

The Value Meter rates Novo Nordisk as “Slightly Undervalued.”

The post Novo Nordisk: What’s Next for the Pharma Giant? appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

When a stock dominates headlines and dinner conversations, the easy money is usually gone. That doesn’t make it a bad business. It just means the market has already done the rewarding.

I suspect that may be where Advanced Micro Devices (Nasdaq: AMD) sits today. The company is no longer the challenger it once was. It’s a fixture of the modern tech landscape.

Its chips power servers, PCs, gaming consoles, and now some of the most demanding AI workloads in the world. And investors know this. That’s why the stock price reflects it.

As you can see, after spending much of last year building a base, AMD didn’t grind higher. It surged. Shares leapt from below $80 in April to well above $250 in a short window before volatility set in.

Now, it’s easy to look at AMD and see a “chipmaker.” But that can be reductive.

The company designs high-performance semiconductors across data centers, consumer devices, gaming, and other computation-heavy ecosystems. Nowadays, that means the company sits at the intersection of cloud computing and artificial intelligence.

That’s a powerful place to be – as the market acknowledges. But it’s also a crowded one.

The latest quarter shows that the business is firing on all cylinders. Revenue rose 36% year over year to $9.2 billion, driven by strength in data centers, AI accelerators, and client CPUs. Operating income expanded. Free cash flow hit a record $1.5 billion.

The balance sheet is solid: over $7 billion in cash and about $3.2 billion in debt. AMD has room to invest without stretching itself.

This is a solid business producing great cash flow.

But the question isn’t whether AMD is a great company. (It is.) The real question is whether you’re being offered value at today’s price.

That, of course, is where our handy-dandy Value Meter comes in.

AMD’s enterprise value-to-net asset value ratio sits at 5.83. The broader universe averages 3.82. This tells us investors are paying a premium for AMD’s assets and its future. That premium may prove justified – but it leaves little room for error.

On efficiency, AMD’s free cash flow-to-net asset value ratio is 1.15%, only slightly above the 1.12% average. That’s fine. It’s not exceptional.

Where AMD does stand out is consistency. Over the past three years, it’s grown its quarterly free cash flow 54.5% of the time, well ahead of peers. Execution has been steady. The momentum is real.

In short, AMD has strong growth and solid cash generation… but a valuation that already assumes both will continue.

The stock’s recent run reinforces the point. Much of the upside came quickly, driven by shifting expectations, not neglected value. Early buyers were paid. New buyers are paying attention – and paying up.

For long-term holders, patience still makes sense. The business is strong, and the strategy is intact.

For new capital, discipline matters. The margin of safety is thin, and thin margins tend to show up after sharp rallies, not before them.

The Value Meter rates AMD as “Appropriately Valued.”

What stock would you like me to run through The Value Meter next? Post the ticker symbol(s) in the comments section below.

The post AMD Is a Great Story… but Is It a “Buy”? appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

That’s the approximate return I would’ve made if I’d trusted myself.

It was 2022, still deep in the pandemic’s long fade-out. Many industries were under pressure, and the auto market was one of the hardest hit. With little travel and even less commuting, demand slid and the entire sector slowed.

But in the middle of that slowdown, something caught my attention. It wasn’t loud. It wasn’t obvious. It was a small but steady shift taking place where almost no one was looking.

I was convinced enough to message my colleagues about it.

Carvana (NYSE: CVNA) had fallen 97%. “Deep value” barely captured it.

I’m a committed value investor, but even I hesitated. A collapse that sharp made me assume the market must’ve known something I didn’t.

So I held back as the stock closed at $8.76 that day.

But within a year, it was trading near $56 – a gain of well over 500%. And this week, it pushed past $460.

Again, that’s a more than 50-FOLD gain.

It’s a moment that stays with you – not because of the money, but because it reminds you how hard it can be to act when the crowd is running the other way.

That lesson is useful now as we ask a different question: After such a dramatic rise, where does the stock stand today?

Carvana has settled into its role as a full-scale online marketplace for used cars. Buyers can find a car, line up financing, handle the paperwork, and arrange delivery without stepping into a dealership. And recent results make it clear that the model is working at scale.

Retail units hit a record 155,941 in the third quarter, up 44% from last year. Revenue jumped 55% to $5.6 billion. Net income reached $263 million, while operating margins climbed to 9.8% – both company records.

Even more striking, Carvana crossed a $20 billion revenue run rate. Management says the firm now has reconditioning and production capacity for more than 1.5 million retail units a year, with long-term goals of selling 3 million.

These gains aren’t coming from hype alone. Carvana continues to bolt ADESA’s network into its system, adding more sites where cars can be processed and delivered faster and at lower cost. The earnings release shows this strategy is lifting both scale and efficiency.

But strong numbers don’t answer the central question: What is the stock worth right now?

Carvana’s enterprise value-to-net asset value sits at 34.40, far above the universe average of 3.82. That means investors are paying a steep premium for each dollar of net assets. On that measure, the stock is expensive.

Its cash generation tells a different story. Free cash flow-to-NAV is 4.12%, versus a universe average of 1.12%. And over the past 12 quarters, Carvana has grown its free cash flow nearly 64% of the time – well above the 46.74% average.

That kind of consistency is uncommon, especially for a business that once looked fragile.

While the stock isn’t the deep-value setup it once was, it’s surprisingly not priced beyond reason either. Today’s valuation reflects a business that is finally delivering the scale and profitability investors doubted it could achieve.

If you already own shares, nothing in the numbers suggests urgency. If you’re considering entering now, patience may reward you with a better setup.

The Value Meter rates Carvana as “Appropriately Valued.”

What stock would you like me to run through The Value Meter next? Post the ticker symbol(s) in the comments section below.

The post Is Carvana’s 5,000% Ride Over? appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

That’s the case this week with household-name retailer Target (NYSE: TGT).

To get Marc’s take on Target’s dividend, click here.

And to get Anthony’s take on its current valuation, keep reading below.

– James Ogletree, Senior Managing Editor

There’s a strange thing that happens when you become a parent. You start caring about stores you once walked past without a second thought. You know which checkout line is the fastest. You know where everything is. And you know that if you run in for toothpaste, you’ll somehow walk out with a cart full of things you didn’t plan on buying.

That store for many is Target (NYSE: TGT). It’s part of everyday life for millions of families.

But the market doesn’t give out points for mere familiarity. Since early 2024, Target’s stock has slid from above $175 to around $90.

That’s a big drop for a company most of us think of as rock-steady. So the real question is whether this is just a rough patch or a sign of something deeper.

Target reaches nearly 2,000 communities and has become a kind of modern general store. Its same-day pickup and delivery options have turned into a real draw, especially for busy households.

But even a strong brand can’t dodge a strained consumer. Shoppers have tightened up. Traffic is down. Margins are thinner than anyone would like.

The latest quarter reflects that mood. Net sales slipped 1.5% year over year to $25.3 billion. Comparable sales were down 2.7% – mostly because in-store traffic fell – but digital sales grew a bit. Earnings dropped from $1.85 to $1.51 per share, and operating income slid almost 19%.

Still, Target kept returning money to shareholders and now expects full-year earnings between $7.70 and $8.70.

It’s not a disaster. It’s a company pushing through a slow season in the consumer cycle.

When you strip things down to the basics – cash, assets, and consistency – the picture looks clearer.

Target’s enterprise value-to-net asset value ratio sits at 3.74, almost identical to the 3.82 market average. You’re not getting a bargain, but you’re not paying up either.

Where Target still proves itself is in cash generation. Its 6.03% free cash flow-to-NAV rate towers over the 1.12% average. Even in a tough stretch, the company throws off real cash.

Over the last 12 quarters, it grew its free cash flow as often as the typical company in our database.

As you’ve seen, shares have drifted lower for nearly two years and now sit near 2020 levels. Moves like this can tempt bargain hunters, but only when the business is turning a corner.

Target isn’t there yet, honestly. Sales remain soft, margins are still tight, and management is bracing investors for another cautious quarter.

Still, if you shop there often, you know Target hasn’t lost its place in American life.

Good companies sometimes move sideways before they move forward. That’s part of the rhythm of retail. And right now, the market seems to have Target priced about right.

The Value Meter rates Target as “Appropriately Valued.”

What stock would you like me to run through The Value Meter next? Post the ticker symbol(s) in the comments section below.

The post Target: This Iconic Retail Stock Continues to Miss the Mark appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

We roast a duck for the three of us – my wife, our daughter, and me. It started as a one-off experiment, but the flavor won people over fast. This year, my mother even asked for her own.

The big family gathering still runs on turkey. Tradition tends to stick. But anyone who’s tried my wife’s duck knows it’s the better bird.

Even then, the meal isn’t really the main point. The table is. Thanksgiving is about getting everyone in one place, telling the same old stories, and being reminded why these people matter. The turkey is just the excuse.

But that habit – and the predictability of it – is what makes turkey such a powerful business. Millions of families buy the same bird every year, and that annual surge flows straight through the country’s biggest producer.

Seaboard (NYSE: SEB) is a very strange bird. It ships cargo across oceans, trades grain, runs power assets, raises hogs… and owns half of Butterball – the largest U.S. producer of turkey.

Odd mix? Sure. But it works inside Seaboard’s broader protein and commodity business.

Through the first nine months of 2025, revenue rose to $7.3 billion from $6.6 billion a year earlier. Net earnings swung from a loss to $243 million. Operating income climbed to $174 million. Cash from operations reached $380 million.

Butterball’s share flows through Seaboard’s affiliate income, which has delivered $81 million so far this year – helped by stronger turkey pricing and steadier production.

Even with those improvements, The Value Meter looks past the surface and asks a simpler question: Is the stock cheap, expensive, or fairly priced?

Its enterprise value is only 0.97 times its net asset value, far below the peer average of 3.70. That makes the company look cheap. But its free cash flow efficiency tells a quieter story. Seaboard produces quarterly free cash flow equal to 0.61% of its net assets, while peers average 1.18%.

Its 12-quarter record is almost identical to the market: positive free cash flow in about half of those periods. Nothing alarming. Nothing dazzling. Solid, steady, and average.

The stock illustrated that blend for a while. Early in the year, shares drifted sideways. Then the climb began.

On the chart, the summer rise forms a clean upward slope, followed by a quick dip and an even sharper surge into November. Today, the stock trades near $4,560 – its strongest level of the year.

Like Thanksgiving itself, Seaboard is a mix of many things – simple at first glance, complex once you look closer. It owns the turkey brand that will show up on millions of tables this week, yet the business underneath is industrial, global, and built for slow, asset-heavy returns.

The numbers say the stock is fairly priced. You’re not getting a bargain, but you’re not overpaying. For patient investors who prefer durable businesses over exciting ones, Seaboard is exactly what it looks like.

The Value Meter rates Seaboard as “Appropriately Valued.”

What stock would you like me to run through The Value Meter next? Post the ticker symbol(s) in the comments section below.

The post The Thanksgiving Turkey King You Never Think About appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

I’ve always been content with the opposite: companies that keep their heads down, cash their checks, and quietly make shareholders richer over time.

That’s why T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW) is on my radar this week. It’s the kind of business that rarely lands on the front page, but its work helps people sleep well at night.

T. Rowe Price is a global asset manager with $1.8 trillion in assets under management (AUM). About two-thirds of those assets are tied to retirement investors – one of the most durable customer bases on Earth.

The company makes money the old-fashioned way: It manages other people’s money and collects fees. It focuses heavily on long-term investing, research-driven portfolio management, and a culture that, frankly, is more buttoned-up than most of Wall Street.

That’s not exciting. But if you’re managing retirement accounts, excitement is overrated.

Stability is the point.

In the third quarter, net revenues rose 6% year over year to $1.9 billion, while diluted earnings per share hit $2.87, up 8.7% from a year ago. AUM gained $89 billion of market appreciation despite $7.9 billion in net outflows.

Management emphasized improving investment performance, particularly across fixed income and long-term equity mandates, and highlighted its new strategic collaboration with Goldman Sachs to expand model portfolios, alternatives access, and advisor-managed accounts.

There were also significant cost moves, as expense discipline remains a priority. The company reduced headcount by roughly 4% since year-end and recorded a $28.5 million restructuring charge tied to layoffs.

It also returned $442 million to shareholders last quarter through dividends and buybacks.

With all that said, let’s now run this sure and steady asset manager through The Value Meter.

T. Rowe’s EV/NAV ratio is 1.75, far below the peer average of 3.80. That means investors are paying less than half of what they typically would for every dollar of net assets.

This is a clear sign of undervaluation compared with the broader universe.

Free cash flow efficiency paints an even better picture. The firm’s FCF/NAV ratio is 2.48%, more than double the peer average of 1.13%.

The company also grew its free cash flow 45.50% of the time across the last 12 quarters – roughly in line with the peer average of 46.76%. Given the nature of the business, this isn’t a bad thing. Rather, it shows the company’s cash growth profile is solid rather than spectacular.

Still, consistency counts. And T. Rowe delivers plenty of it.

Over the past year, its stock has traded in wide swings – from highs near $118 to lows in the high $70s before rebounding to around $98 today. The chart shows a stock that’s been pushed around by sentiment far more than by fundamentals.

That usually spells opportunity.

T. Rowe Price is not a high-octane growth engine, nor does it pretend to be. It’s a resilient, cash-generating machine with a loyal client base, improving investment performance, and a growing lineup of advisory and retirement solutions.

Add in a nice 5% dividend yield, a disciplined expense strategy, and undervalued fundamentals, and you start to see why patient investors might want to take notice.

It’s no wonder the company is buying back its own stock.

The Value Meter rates T. Rowe Price as “Slightly Undervalued.”

What stock would you like me to run through The Value Meter next? Post the ticker symbol(s) in the comments section below.

The post T. Rowe Price: Quiet, Consistent, and Minting Money appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

Two investors look at the same jagged line and see two entirely different stories – fear for one, quiet opportunity for the other. Western Union‘s (NYSE: WU) chart is one of those Rorschach tests.

The stock crested near $12 in early 2024, faded through the rest of the year, and spent most of 2025 trying to decide whether it still belongs in a faster-moving world.

Yet beneath that messy picture is a company changing in ways the market hasn’t fully caught on to. That tension – the reputation of a fading legacy player versus the reality of a business adapting more quickly than it gets credit for – is what pulled me into Western Union this week.

Western Union is still best known for its global remittance network, the financial lifeline for millions of families spread across borders. But the company is steadily reshaping itself.

Management’s “Evolve 2025” strategy leans on something simple but smart: using the company’s enormous retail footprint to funnel customers into better digital experiences while building new services that make Western Union more than a one-trick money transfer company.

It’s slow, steady modernization rather than a flashy reinvention.

The numbers from the third quarter show both the friction and the progress. Revenue landed at just over $1 billion, basically flat from last year. Adjusted revenue dipped slightly, and North America retail continues to slide as customers shift to mobile and low-fee competitors.

But that’s only half the story.

The Consumer Services segment, which includes wallets, bill pay, and travel money, exploded 49% year over year. Digital transactions climbed 12%, marking the eighth straight quarter of healthy growth. Both GAAP and adjusted operating margins improved to 20%, a sign that the company is becoming more efficient even as it invests in its shift toward digital.

Cash generation remains the anchor. Year to date, Western Union has produced more than $400 million in operating cash flow and returned over $430 million to shareholders through buybacks and dividends.

This isn’t a company gasping for air. It’s a company trimming fat and redirecting energy.

The Value Meter focuses on what a business actually produces, not the story told around it. And the cash numbers here speak loudly.

Western Union’s enterprise value-to-net asset value ratio is 4.95, a small premium to the broad universe’s 3.80. That’s not ideal, but the next metric wipes away most of the concern: Free cash flow-to-NAV sits at 13.21%, compared with the universe’s 1.13%.

That’s not just “better.” It’s in a different league. Western Union generates cash almost 12 times more efficiently than the typical company.

Its 12-quarter free cash flow consistency also edges out the universe average, showing a pattern of steady improvement rather than erratic spurts.

Meanwhile, the stock looks like it’s been sentenced to the penalty box. It’s the kind of chart you see when investors doubt a company’s long-term relevance. But doubt isn’t the same as decline, and the fundamentals don’t match the pessimism baked into the price.

Western Union isn’t morphing into a high-growth fintech, and it doesn’t need to. It just needs to keep expanding its higher-margin services and nudge more of its customer base toward digital.

If it does that – and the past year suggests it’s already doing it – the market’s expectations look too low.

The Value Meter rates Western Union as “Slightly Undervalued.”

What stock would you like me to run through The Value Meter next? Post the ticker symbol(s) in the comments section below.

The post The Market’s Missing Something Big With This Bank’s Stock appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

Fast-forward to 2025, and something surprising is happening: The company is quietly becoming a cash flow machine again.

When I see an old-school retailer generating real profits in a brutally competitive market, my ears perk up. That kind of turnaround – if it sticks – can make patient investors a lot of money.

Gap is the largest specialty apparel company in the U.S., owning Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic, and Athleta. After years of uneven execution for the company, new leadership has spent two years tightening costs, refreshing brand identities, and modernizing supply chains.

The second quarter of fiscal 2025 showed that the plan is starting to click. Net sales held steady at $3.7 billion, with comparable sales up 1% year over year – the company’s sixth straight quarter of positive comps. Earnings per share rose 6% to $0.57, and operating margin came in at 7.8%.

Cash and equivalents hit $2.4 billion – the highest level in 15 years – and the company returned $144 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.

The Old Navy and Gap brands both posted gains, while Banana Republic showed early traction in its premium repositioning. Athleta remains a sore spot but has a new CEO from Nike to lead its reset.

Gross margin was 41.2%, down from 42.6% last year due to the lapping of last year’s credit-card benefit and tariff costs. Online sales rose 3% and now make up 34% of total revenue. Inventory climbed 9%, mostly from accelerated receipts ahead of new tariffs.

Management reaffirmed full-year guidance of 1% to 2% sales growth and an operating margin of 6.7% to 7%.

For a mature retailer fighting tariffs and fickle consumers, those are respectable numbers.

Let’s run Gap through The Value Meter and see what’s really happening beneath the surface.

Gap’s enterprise value compared with its net asset value sits at about 3.4, a touch cheaper than the market’s 3.8 average. That means investors are paying less for each dollar of assets than they would for a typical peer.

At the same time, the company is converting those assets into cash with unusual efficiency. Quarterly free cash flow now equals nearly 7% of Gap’s net asset value – six times higher than the broader market average.

What makes this more convincing is the consistency. Nearly half of the past dozen quarters showed growth in free cash flow, roughly matching the average company in our universe. That may sound ordinary, but in retail, ordinary stability can be a rare advantage.

Since surging 70% in a month at the end of 2023, the stock has seen some big swings, bouncing back and forth between $17 and $29. It currently sits right around the midpoint of that range.

Gap isn’t suddenly a growth rocket, and tariffs or shifting fashion trends could easily knock it off balance for a while. But right now, the company is quietly producing real cash, paying its bills, rewarding shareholders, and trading for less than it probably should.

That’s a setup long-term investors don’t see often in this sector.

The Value Meter rates Gap as “Slightly Undervalued.”

What stock would you like me to run through The Value Meter next? Post the ticker symbol(s) in the comments section below.

The post Gap: A Comeback Story That’s Starting to Cash In appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

Now that the jump scares are out of the way, let’s talk about something truly frightening: being a shareholder of Fiserv (NYSE: FI).

I’m covering it for one reason only: It’s the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 this year. Nearly two-thirds of its market value has vanished in just a few months.

For those who’ve held through the drop, it’s been a horror show. But the real question now is whether the frightful fundamentals are finally priced in.

The stock had already slid nearly 40% year to date entering this week, but the collapse came on Wednesday when the fintech firm slashed its annual earnings forecast and unveiled a broad executive shake-up.

Third quarter results showed the strain. Revenue missed expectations by more than 8%, operating income fell 10% year over year to $1.44 billion, and free cash flow fell 28% to $1.33 billion. Adjusted earnings per share dropped 11% to $2.04.

The company cut its full-year earnings per share forecast from a range of $10.15 to $10.30 to $8.50 to $8.60 – a 16% drop. That sent shares down 44% in a single day, the steepest fall in company history.

New CEO Mike Lyons called it a “critical and necessary reset.” Translation: Management uncovered accounting surprises, unrealistic growth assumptions, and weakness in Argentina.

The company is reorganizing under a new One Fiserv plan, with fresh leadership now steering its two core divisions – Merchant Solutions and Financial Solutions.

Fiserv still runs the digital “plumbing” of modern finance. It moves money and manages payments for banks like Citigroup and Wells Fargo, retailers such as Walmart, and even U.S. government agencies.

But investors don’t buy pipes; they buy profit flow. And right now, that flow looks uncertain.

Analysts haven’t been kind. Guidance cuts, board turnover, and vague long-term targets have shaken confidence. BTIG downgraded the stock, warning of a “laundry list of reasons” not to own it.

Still, total capitulation can create opportunity. When a company this central to the payments ecosystem resets expectations, it’s worth asking whether the pendulum has swung too far.

After all, The Value Meter doesn’t care about headlines – only fundamentals.

Fiserv’s enterprise value-to-net asset value (EV/NAV) ratio stands at 2.65, well below the universe average of 3.88 – a clear discount.

Its free cash flow-to-net asset value (FCF/NAV) comes in at 4.23%, more than four times the market’s 1.01% average.

And its 12-quarter free cash flow growth rate of 45.5% nearly matches the broad market’s 46.4%, showing that the engine’s still running even after the wreck.

Now, that doesn’t erase the company’s problems. Management still has to rebuild trust, stabilize margins, and prove that the reset wasn’t just spin. But when a profitable infrastructure firm trades at a discount while still producing healthy cash flow, the setup can be quietly compelling.

For now, fear dominates the narrative. But that’s usually when value begins to stir.

The Value Meter rates Fiserv as “Slightly Undervalued.”

What stock would you like me to run through The Value Meter next? Post the ticker symbol(s) in the comments section below.

The post Why Fiserv’s Bloodbath May Be Over appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.

After sprinting to record highs, it posted its sharpest drop in years this week as traders took profits and reset their positions. But big moves like that don’t kill a bull market; they clear the deck.

If the longer-term drivers – central bank buying, deficit worries, and a firm dollar trend that can turn – stay in place, the metal still has room. Pullbacks are simply the toll you pay on the highway.

That sets the stage for Barrick Mining (NYSE: B).

Barrick is a diversified operator, not a one-mine bet. It runs Tier One gold assets in Nevada, the Dominican Republic, Tanzania, and Congo, plus a growing copper arm in Zambia and a huge copper-gold project in Pakistan.

The company’s playbook is simple: Keep a strong balance sheet, push costs down, and fund the next wave of growth from internal cash rather than debt or dilutive deals.

Its latest numbers back that up. In the second quarter of 2025, revenue was $3.7 billion. Net earnings were $811 million, or $0.47 per share, with adjusted EPS also $0.47. Attributable EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) hit $1.69 billion with a 55% margin.

Free cash flow was $395 million even as Barrick stepped up spending at Lumwana (the copper mine in Zambia) and Reko Diq (the copper-gold project in Pakistan). The company ended the quarter with $4.8 billion in cash and a small net-cash position of $73 million. Shareholders got a $0.15 quarterly dividend – including a $0.05 enhancement tied to net cash – and $268 million of buybacks during the quarter.

Operations are trending the right way. Gold production rose 5% quarter over quarter. Production at Nevada Gold Mines increased 11% from the first quarter on better grades and throughput, while output jumped 28% in the Dominican Republic as plant upgrades took hold. Copper production climbed 34% as Lumwana improved mining rates and unit costs fell.

Now to the Value Meter breakdown.

On valuation, Barrick’s average EV/NAV is 1.64, versus a universe average of 3.79. That tells us the stock is cheaper than its peers, because you pay less for each dollar of net assets.

On cash efficiency, the company’s average FCF/NAV is 0.84%, versus 1.11% for its peers. That’s a notch worse, meaning Barrick turns assets into free cash a bit less efficiently than the average company in our universe right now.

But there’s more to the story here. On momentum of the cash engine, Barrick’s 12-quarter FCF growth rate is 54.50% versus 46.25% for its peers. That’s better, suggesting cash generation is trending faster than the pack.

What about the stock?

Shares have ripped from the mid-teens last winter to the low $30s now, with a brief spike toward the mid $30s as gold went vertical. (The recent dip tracks the metal’s cooldown more than any change to Barrick’s story.)

If bullion finds support and copper stays firm, Barrick’s blend of low-cost gold and expanding copper should keep free cash flow coming. The pipeline – including the ramp-up in the Dominican Republic, Reko Diq, and a “Super Pit Expansion” at Lumwana – adds real torque to 2026 through 2028 without stretching the balance sheet today.

So aside from the dip in gold prices, this is a quality operator priced below the peer pack with improving operations and a clean balance sheet. For investors who want leverage to the metal without betting the farm, Barrick still looks like the adult in the room.

The Value Meter rates Barrick Mining as “Slightly Undervalued.”

What stock would you like me to run through The Value Meter next? Post the ticker symbol(s) in the comments section below.

The post The Low-Cost Gold Play That Wall Street’s Missing appeared first on Wealthy Retirement.